After a sluggish start to their 5-game homestand, the Dallas Mavericks will try to bounce back when they host the Orlando Magic.
Orlando is adjusting to life without star Paolo Banchero (oblique) who is out indefinitely — a big reason why they’re 8-point road ‘dogs in the NBA odds.
Facing a compromised lineup, my Magic vs Mavericks prediction has Dallas clamping down the visitors and keeping the score low.
Read below for my free NBA picks on Sunday, November 3.
Magic vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Under 221 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Orlando Magic offense has ground to a halt without their budding star.
They scored a season-low in a 102-99 loss to the Bulls when Paolo Banchero left with an injury, and they posted their second-lowest output of the year last game in a 120-109 loss to the Cavaliers.
This was a team already perilously thin with both shot creators and shot makers. As a team, Orlando is 19th in scoring at 111.7 points per game and ranks in the bottom half of the league in both field goal (44.9%) and 3-point shooting (34.4%).
Look for them to lean on a defense that sits ninth in scoring at 109.8 points per game.
The Dallas Mavericks are probably not the team they want to be catching right now, as the Mavericks were shut down in a 108-102 loss to the Houston Rockets.
The Mavs were pounded on the glass, surrendering 18 offensive rebounds, and losing the overall battle 50-37.
Dallas was also foul-happy, sending Houston to the stripe 27 times, continuing a recurring trend of fouling more than drawing personals in every game this season. They are allowing teams to shoot about 29 free throws per game, a Bottom-7 ranking in the league.
Surprisingly, a lineup featuring Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson is scoring at a lower clip than Orlando, posting 110.8 points per game.
Their seventh-ranked scoring defense allows them to hang around in games, to let their stars land the plane.
Dallas has owned this head-to-head, winning eight of the last 10, but the -320 moneyline juice is prohibitive, and a team that fouls this much and struggles to score doesn't give much confidence in that substantial spread.
So we'll focus on the total. The Mavericks have hit the Under in three of its last four, and their defense should limit an Orlando side that will try to stay afloat until its all-star returns.
Magic vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Under 221.5
Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists
Klay Thompson Over 13.5 points
We’re tagging two reachable Mavericks props to roll into an SGP.
Kyrie Irving finished the last game against Houston with 29 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, marking the fourth straight game he’s had at least five dimes.
His line is set for 4.5 on Sunday. Last year, in his only other meeting against the Magic while with the Mavericks, Irving handed out 10 helpers.
After a sizzling three-game start to his Mavericks’ stint, Klay Thompson has shown some of the wear and limited offense that has dimmed his last couple of seasons.
He scored seven points on seven shots against the T-Wolves, followed up with 12 points on 5-for-13 shooting against the Rockets last time out.
Orlando’s top defenders like Jalen Suggs, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, and Jonathan Isaac will have their hands full with Dallas’ top two stars, so this is a perfect spot for Thompson to release the pressure with some dead-eye shooting.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Magic vs Mavericks odds
Magic vs Mavericks live odds
Magic vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +7.5 | Dallas -7.5
- Moneyline: Orlando +242 | Dallas -280
- Over/Under: Over 220 | Under 220
Odds courtesy of bet365
Magic vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Orlando is 3-1-1 in its last five against the Mavericks.
- Dallas has won 12 straight home games against Orlando.
- The Magic have cashed the Over in five of six games.
- The Mavericks have gone Over the total in two of three home games this season.
Magic vs Mavericks trend
Dallas is 1-3-0 ATS as a betting favorite this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Magic vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN FL, KFAA |
Magic vs Mavericks latest injuries
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