The Memphis Grizzlies head to the Great White North to face off against the Toronto Raptors in NBA action tonight.
Both teams have struggled lately but the Grizz are still in third place in the Western Conference standings ... while the Raps are four games below .500 and tied for 10th in the East.
NBA betting odds hit the board with Memphis installed as a 2.5-point road favorite before shifting to -3 — but it's actually a Toronto star that I've got my eye on tonight as the best bet.
Read on in my best free NBA pick for Grizzlies vs. Raptors on December 29.
Grizzlies vs Raptors best odds
Grizzlies vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Toronto Raptors have been a disappointment over the last month but one player that can't be blamed for that is Pascal Siakam. The All-Star power forward continues to improve his game and is leading the team in points (26.6), rebounds (8.5), and assists (6.8) per game.
The Over/Under on Siakam's points total tonight is set at 25.5, a number he has eclipsed in each of his last five games, headlined by a 52-point performance against the Knicks last week.
He has logged more than 40 minutes, and taken an average of 24.5 field-goal attempts, in his last four games, which indicates that even with some regression in his efficiency he should be able to hit this number.
The Memphis Grizzlies are typically stingy on the defensive end of the floor but they play at a fast pace and have struggled in their last two games, surrendering more than 120 points to shorthanded Warriors and Suns teams.
With Siakam coming off a 36-point performance against the Clippers — and possibly seeing an even higher usage rate if Fred VanVleet is unable to play — take the Over on his points.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 25.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
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Grizzlies vs Raptors spread analysis
The Grizzlies are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games and they're coming off back-to-back lopsided losses against the Suns and Warriors. They entered both of those contests as 7.5-point faves with the Suns missing Devin Booker and the Dubs playing without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins.
The Raptors have also struggled lately, going 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. They are fresh off a 124-113 loss to the Clippers at home and VanVleet left the game in the third quarter with back spasms. The All-Star guard missed yesterday's practice and is questionable for today.
The Raps went just 6 of 23 from long range against the Clips, while allowing L.A. to knock down 15 treys at a 39% clip.
That's been the story of the season for the Raptors, who are 28th in the league in effective field goal percentage (51%) while ranking 29th in opponent EFG% (56.4%). Toronto's success has been largely due to its ability to force turnovers and take care of the ball, with the team boasting the lowest turnover rate and the highest opponent turnover rate in the NBA.
Despite their recent slump, the Grizzlies are still fifth in the league with an average scoring margin of plus-3.6 ppg. However, they've really struggled on the road this season, going just 7-10 SU (4-12-1 ATS) with a scoring margin of minus-3.8 ppg.
Grizzlies vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams like to push the pace in transition but coming off made shots they prefer to take their time when they set up in the half-court. The Raps rank 28th in the league in average length of possession after a missed shot (18.0 seconds) while the Grizz are 16th at 17.3 seconds.
The Grizzlies also have a major dropoff in their offensive production away from home, averaging just 112.1 ppg on 45.4% shooting on the road. While their shooting was expected to improve with the return of Desmond Bane last week, he's looked rusty after missing more than a month with a toe injury.
Before hitting the IL, Bane had averaged 24.7 ppg on 46.5% shooting — but in three games back he's putting up just 13.3 ppg on 26.3% shooting (including going just 2 of 19 from long range).
The Raptors went through a rough stretch on defense earlier this month but that coincided with an injury to defensive stopper O.G. Anunoby and they have played better since he rejoined the team. They would see some regression offensively with VanVleet, but their backup guards are solid on the defensive end of the court.
Grizzlies vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Raptors.
Grizzlies vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, December 29, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast-MEM, SN1 |
Grizzlies vs Raptors key injuries
