The Memphis Grizzlies are double-digit road dogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
Beating the NBA’s top team is a tall order for the Grizzlies, especially with star Ja Morant still out of the lineup (hamstring), but a "tall order" calls for big play from Memphis’ man in the middle, Jaren Jackson Jr.
My Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks like Jackson to put in work on the boards.
Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
Jaren Jackson Jr. is counting down the days to April, as March has been unkind to the Memphis Grizzlies big man. The 6-foot-10 center has battled multiple injuries, off nights, and foul trouble this month.
All of that has hindered his statistical output. Jackson has been notably absent on the boards, averaging just over three rebounds in his last eight outings after pulling down more than six rebounds per game for the bulk of the season.
He missed five games earlier this month with a sprained ankle and most recently left Tuesday’s loss to the Jazz due to an elbow to the face after playing just 23 minutes, finishing with three rebounds in that shortened effort.
Jackson Jr. didn’t appear on the injury report for tonight’s trip to Oklahoma City, which promises to be played at a quick pace. The Grizzlies rank as the No. 1 team in terms of pace in the NBA while the Thunder aren’t far behind (No. 8).
Memphis and OKC rank first and third in average field goal attempts per game, so the opportunity for rebounds is ripe considering the matchup and tempo of this Thursday’s night meeting.
For all their strengths, the Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t a great rebounding team, allowing almost 54 total rebounds per game to opponents — the fourth-highest mark in the league — and ranks 22nd in rebound rate. Oklahoma City has also struggled to keep foes off the offensive glass (11.7 off. rebounds allowed per game).
Jackson’s rebound props have bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 O/U in his last 10 showings, with the Grizzlies big topping that total only three times. That has tonight’s total on the low end at 5.5 with the Over providing a plus-money return.
Player projections for Jackson all call for at least six rebounds, with some models flirting with seven boards. My number comes out to 6.3 rebounds, which should have the Over 5.5 rebounds priced around -140.
Considering injuries have a lot to do with Jackson’s power outage on the glass, I like the value we’re getting with Memphis’ center to snatch 6+ boards in an up-tempo tilt with plenty of shots going up.
Grizzlies vs Thunder same-game parlay
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds
Jaren Jackson Jr. 20+ points
Thunder moneyline
Jackson's work on the boards has been hampered by injuries and foul trouble this month. This is a good buyback spot on his rebound prop, considering projections call for 6+ boards.
Player forecasts also call for 20+ points from the All-Star center, scoring around the rim and putting back some offensive rebounds.
The Thunder are big favorites on a seven-game streak. Oklahoma City is 18-2 SU when laying 10+ points at home this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grizzlies vs Thunder odds
Grizzlies vs Thunder live odds
Grizzlies vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +10 | Oklahoma City -10
- Moneyline: Memphis +350 | Oklahoma City -450
- Over/Under: Over 241 | Under 241
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Grizzlies vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
• OKC opened as 10-point home chalk, and that number has bounced between -9.5 and -10 since hitting the board.
• The Over/Under total opened as high as 241 points but slumped to as low as 238 before returning to 239.5 points.
• According to Covers Consensus, 60% of picks are laying the lumber with OKC as a hefty favorite while 62% of total picks are taking the Over.
Grizzlies vs Thunder trend
The Thunder are 11-7-2 ATS when laying 10+ points at home this season and 23-9-2 ATS as 10+ point home chalk the past two years. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Thunder.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN SE-Memphis, FDSN-Oklahoma |
Grizzlies vs Thunder latest injuries
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