Hawks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Memphis Extends Win Streak to Six

Monday night features a showdown between a pair of young, rising teams led by two of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA.

Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies have won five straight games and have moved into the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference. Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks have shown much less consistency at 14-13 but did pull out a spectacular buzzer-beating overtime win last night against the Bulls.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Grizzlies think that Memphis’ perimeter defense and heavy legs should see them prevail over a fatigued and struggling Atlanta squad.

Hawks vs Grizzlies best odds

Hawks vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

The NBA is a league defined by star power. More than any other sport, a basketball team will only go as far as its talent can carry them. That spells trouble for the Atlanta Hawks, whose star player is off to a troubling start.

It's not been a banner year for Trae Young. Even putting aside recently leaked issues simmering between Young and head coach Nate McMillan, Young simply has not been up to his usual standard of play this year. 

He’s shooting just 28.9% from deep, which is by far the worst 3-point shooting percentage of his career. And Trae’s hit rate on his patented super long 3-point attempts has plummeted to the point that each time, he takes one seems to kill the morale of many of his teammates on the court (and endlessly vex his head coach). 

Whether it’s McMillan's midrange happy scheme or Trae’s wavering confidence in his own shot, he’s also seen a significant decline in the share of offense he’s generating from 3-point range. He’s shifted a number of his shots into the midrange area, but he’s not finding success there. 

Trae is down to a career-low 46.9% on 2-point shots and is finishing just 54% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. His points per shot attempt are in the 42nd percentile among all point guards, compared to the 96th percentile last season.

In part, Trae and the Hawks miss the spacing provided by Kevin Huerter, whose gravity was an underrated element that helped facilitate the environment most suitable for Young’s style of play. But even with Bogdan Bogdanovic going off last night against Chicago, Young shot just 5-18 from the field and 2-8 on threes.

The Hawks might manage to produce enough offense against some teams without Trae going and Dejounte absent, but Memphis won’t be one of them. The reason Trae struggled so much in that Miami Heat series during last year's playoffs wasn’t because of the play of any single guard defender. Rather, it was the connection between (often) Gabe Vincent and Bam Adebayo. 

Gabe’s ability to trail and bother Young’s airspace as well as Bam’s ability to comfortably switch onto Trae and shut down his driving game without giving up anything easy from outside short-circuited nearly every Young attack before it could begin. No doubt the Taylor Jenkins and the Grizzlies themselves are aware of that formula, and how well-positioned they are personnel-wise to mimic it with Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. 

Brooks is one of the NBA’s best love-to-hate figures, a professional pest to play against whose mission in life is to make his opponent hate the sport of basketball for every second that he’s on the court. He’s bigger and stronger than Young and has great anticipation and footwork. Both Young and his teammates will have to make multiple efforts per possession just to get Trae the ball, many teams and great players eventually wilt under Brooks’ relentless pressure.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is perhaps not as strong a switch defender as Bam, though he’s miles better than the average big and his unique combination of length and footwork allows him to recover and bother or block shots on drives even when he does get beat.

The only thing that gives you pause about laying this line is that Ja Morant is officially questionable with right thigh soreness. But Morant hasn’t missed any time with that injury, nor did he exit the Grizzlies’ previous game with it. I’d bet on him playing to bank this very winnable game before a stretch of five games that includes matchups with the Bucks, Nuggets, Warriors, and Suns.

Even if Ja is out, Memphis also has Tyus Jones ready to step up to the plate. He’s no Morant obviously, but he’s the best backup point guard in the NBA. He consistently ranks near the top of the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio and is a solid perimeter shooter and defender.

Trae Young has shot the Hawks out of a lot of games this season. I don’t expect his and the Hawks’ fortunes to turn around while playing on heavy legs against one of the NBA’s best defenses.

My best bet: Grizzlies -7.5 (-105 at Betway)

Hawks vs Grizzlies spread analysis

The Hawks are on a road back-to-back, after a gruelling game that went to the very last millisecond of overtime. Even for a team playing with great cohesion or with outstanding star talent, picking a Hawks cover would be a tall order — but that is simply not who the Hawks are right now. 

Atlanta has been inconsistent on both ends and they’ve struggled even more since Dejounte Murray went out of the lineup. The relationship between Trae Young and Nate McMillan is increasingly fractious and it would be of little surprise to anybody to see the latest dustup result in the firing of the latter. 

Atlanta is just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games. They’re also a worse road team than one might expect, with a putrid 12-25 record ATS in their last 37 away games. Against the Grizzlies specifically, they’re just 2-7 in the last five meetings in Memphis.

The Grizzlies' offense is sputtering without Desmond Bane, but their improvements on the defensive end over that same span have more than made up for it. At -7.5, I strongly favor a Grizzlies cover against a fatigued Hawks team on Monday.

Hawks vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s return has completely transformed this Memphis defense. After miring in mediocrity on that end for most of the season, they have made a dramatic leap in the standings.

Jackson is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate and would have been a deserving winner last year as well but the starkness of this year’s numbers with and without him for Memphis make the case in plain language. 

Prior to Jaren Jackson’s return to action on November 15, the Grizzlies were ranked 17th on defense. Since then? They’re all the way up to fourth and still climbing. They’ve been the best defense in the NBA over the last two weeks and with Desmond Bane continuing to miss time, they’ve truly leaned on their physicality and defensive identity to beat opposing teams. That’s contributed to the Under going 7-3 in the Grizzlies' last 10 home games.

Their offense has struggled as well, and they’ve played at the level of a Bottom-10 team on that side of the ball over the last six games. I’m also not convinced that the Hawks will have any success on offense with Trae Young struggling to the degree he has been and Dejounte Murray slated to miss yet another game with the ankle sprain he sustained against the New York Knicks on Wednesday.

The Under is also 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six games against winning teams, in part because the good teams have had little trouble figuring out the Hawks’ simplistic and midrange-happy offense. All things considered, I’d lean Under 228.5.

Hawks vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Hawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Grizzlies.

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