Heat vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: L.A. Struggles to Produce

The Miami Heat continue their West Coast tour in California, rolling into Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.

Miami is picking up speed with wins over the Clippers and Jazz in the last two stops and has four victories in its previous five contests overall, pumping out a 4-1 ATS mark in that stretch. That momentum has the Heat tabbed as 5.5-point road favorites in La-La Land.

Los Angeles has won back-to-back games as well, but could be without star forward LeBron James for Wednesday’s non-conference clash. James is questionable with a sore ankle and his absence would leave a gaping hole in a Lakers lineup that’s already missing Anthony Davis. 

I break down the spread and total for this game and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Lakers on January 4.

(Editor's Note: This preview was written prior to LeBron James being ruled out for the Heat-Lakers game tonight but with the expectation that James' absence was a possibility.)

Heat vs Lakers best odds

Heat vs Lakers picks and predictions

The Heat don’t just play defense when their opponents have the basketball. Miami’s methodical pace on offense and physical brand of pick-and-roll, off-the-ball screens and cuts wear down foes and tank the tempo of the overall contest.

Just look at the low gear the Lakers got sucked into when they played the Heat last week. Los Angeles, which owns the second-highest pace rating in the NBA at 102.74, finished that 112-98 defeat with just a total of 93 offensive possessions — 10.5 less than its season average. The Lakers attempted only 77 field goals and committed an embarrassing 24 turnovers, getting dragged into a pace rating of 94.0.

Without Davis to anchor the interior attack and create space for others, the Lakers are abundantly dependent on transition to kick-start their scoring. LeBron James is at the wheel of that attack, but if he’s getting worn down after playing major minutes this past month or decides to sit out with the bum ankle, this L.A. offense is a rudderless ship.

The Heat are among the best teams in the NBA at putting the breaks on transition offenses, owning the fourth-lowest scoring frequency allowed for an average of only 1.09 points per play. 

Miami takes care of the basketball on offense, ranked third-lowest in turnovers, and is shooting a solid percentage during this run (47%), which kills transition teams as they must start their offense off the inbounds. The Lakers have watched foes fire at a 49.7% clip since Davis went down.

The Heat also have a proven rim protector in Bam Adebayo and an air-tight interior defense that allows the fewest points in the paint per game (44.5). 

The Lakers are the No. 2 points in the paint offense and struggle to create in the halfcourt set beyond running James in isolation and hoping for the best. Miami has on-the-ball lockdown defenders in Jimmy Butler and Adebayo, who have the size and tenacity to at least slow LeBron down (he did score 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting on Dec. 18).

Los Angeles has won three of its last four, with the loss to Miami sticking out like a sore thumb. The Purple and Gold had success scoring against the likes of Orlando (129 points), Atlanta (130) and Charlotte (121) in that stretch — all of which either rank in the bottom third in defensive rating and/or have serious troubles slowing down transition attacks.

I’m betting Under the Lakers team total of 112.5 points, and if James does sit out, we’re definitely getting the better of this derivative total tonight.

My best bet: Lakers team total Under 112.5 (-115 at bet365)

Heat vs Lakers spread analysis

This spread hit the board with Miami as low as -3 on the road, coming off solid wins over the L.A. Clippers and Utah Jazz. 

With James showing up on the injury report, the spread started sliding upwards with the Heat as big as 6-point road chalk. If James is officially ruled out, expect this line to climb further but should he show up as probable — as he did before Monday’s win over Charlotte — this spread will settle back down to the Miami -4 range.

Los Angeles has leaned heavily on the all-around play of James since Davis went down mid-December. In his absence, James is averaging more than 35 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in the past eight games. 

Without LeBron in the lineup, the Lakers turn to Damian Jones and Wenyen Gabriel to fill minutes in the frontcourt, making Los Angeles much less versatile while going bigger. That very much slows L.A.’s frenetic tempo, which ranks No. 2 in pace, and not having James pushing the ball and creating plays leaves the Lakers’ transition-dependent offense stuck in sand.

Miami would welcome a slower tempo. The Heat are among the more methodical offenses in the NBA, running plenty of pick-and-roll and cutters away from the ball. The Heat have been locked in during this five-game span, sitting No. 9 in advanced offensive rating and letting their defense fuel easy offense, with an average of 22 points off turnovers per game in this stretch (most in the league).

The Heat thumped the Lakers just last week, beating L.A. 112-98 while covering the closing spread of -8.5 at home. The Lakers coughed the ball up 24 times in that meeting with Miami’s smothering defense, which the Heat converted into 31 points off turnovers.

Heat vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under opened at 229.5 points and has slimmed slightly to 229 as of Wednesday morning. 

James’ official status will have an impact on this number before tipoff at 10 p.m. ET, but this total is as much as three points higher than the closing Over/Under from their December 28 meeting. 

That total was originally as low as 223.5 with Butler and Adebayo questionable but soared as high as 229.5 when they were ruled in before late buyback on the Under dipping the total to as low as 226.5. The 112-98 win for the Heat stayed well below the number, with the teams playing a slower offensive pace and combining for only 37 points in the fourth quarter.

Los Angeles has been producing Over results since Davis went down, leaving the Lakers to run a smaller lineup with James at power forward and taking away their rim protector on defense. Los Angeles is 6-2 O/U in its last eight games, watching foes fire at a 49.7% clip from the field. 

The Heat are always an active Under bet but with totals tightening and the offense seeing an uptick in efficiency, Over results are beginning to trickle into Miami’s contests. The team has gone Over the number in three of five games during this current hot run and this current Over/Under number (229) is the biggest total it’s faced since a 229.5-point closer at Indiana on Dec. 12 (Miami won 87-82).

Heat vs Lakers betting trend to know

Miami is 8-10 Over/Under on the road this season, including a 2-6 O/U count when set as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Lakers.

Heat vs Lakers game info

Heat vs Lakers key injuries

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