There’s a lot on the line as the Miami Heat travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers in an Eastern Conference showdown.
The NBA odds have the Pacers as a slight 1-point favorite in a game that will carry a lot of weight in the race for the No. 6 seed. As the Heat gear up for an NBA playoff run — and try to play themselves out of the NBA Play-In Tournament — they’ll need to rely on franchise cornerstone Jimmy Butler.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Pacers on Sunday, April 7.
Heat vs Pacers predictions
My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
Even at the ripe old age of 34, Jimmy Butler is capable of taking over games and carrying the Miami Heat. At this point in his career, he’ll cruise through a chunk of the season, but come April, he takes his game to another level.
Last year, that resulted in Butler helping to lift the Heat from the NBA Play-In Tournament as the No. 7 seed to the NBA Finals, where they'd eventually fall to the Nuggets.
With just five games left in the regular season and Miami 4-1 over its last five, Butler is trying to elevate his team to avoid the tougher path and earn the No. 6 seed and a true NBA playoff berth. Making that mission a reality starts with the Indiana Pacers, who are just 1.5 games ahead of Miami for the No. 6 seed in the East.
The Pacers have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA all season, ranking seventh worst in rating (119.2) and fourth worst in points allowed per game (120.2). Indiana has been particularly bad against wing players and is allowing the fifth-most points per game in the NBA to small forwards (22.42).
Overall, the Pacers give up a combined 33.85 points + rebounds + assists per game to small forwards, which bodes well for Butler, who's averaging 21 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game this season.
Where Butler can take advantage of Indiana is in the mid-range or by attacking the rim — the Pacers give up the most 2-pointers per game in the NBA (33.8). He should also see plenty of opportunity to rack up boards as Indiana is just 27th in the league in rebounds per game (39.8).
Butler is poised to push a defense that’s struggled this season, especially as the Heat get ready for playoff basketball. In two games against the Pacers this season, Butler is averaging 34.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists.
Heat vs Pacers same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists
Nikola Jovic Over 5.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton Under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists
Beyond Butler, a few Heat players have a chance to push this lackluster Indiana defense, including second-year starter Nikola Jovic. While the 20-year-old Jovic is still adjusting to the NBA game, he should be able to hang at least six points tonight.
He’s coming off three games of at least eight points in his last four outings and averaging 9.0 points over that stretch — this Indiana defense also gives up more points than any team to power forwards (26.39).
Things could get tricky for Indiana if its defense continues to struggle. All-Star Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with a back injury and coming off a game against the Thunder in which he only combined for 21 PRA.
It’ll be tough to generate offense against a Heat defense that ranks third in the league in points allowed (108.4).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs Pacers odds and trends
Heat vs Pacers live odds
Heat vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +1 | Indiana -1
- Moneyline: Miami -105 | Indiana -115
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Heat vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pacers opened as a 1.5-point favorite with most books now offering the Heat +1.
- Indiana is among the best teams against the spread this season at 42-34-3 while Miami is just 37-38-2.
- With these teams' clashing styles, the Over/Under opened as high as 229.5, but has since dropped to as low as 224.5.
- No team consistently hits the Under at the same rate as the Heat, who are a league-best 46-31 betting the Under. The Pacers also hit the Under more frequently than the Over at 39-38-2.
Heat vs Pacers trend
The Heat have stayed Under the total in 54 of their last 86 games (+18.80 units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Pacers.
Heat vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, April 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Sun |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
