A pair of 20-19 teams face off in NBA action on Friday night with the Phoenix Suns hosting the Miami Heat. The Suns have been in a tailspin ever since losing All-NBA shooting guard Devin Booker to a groin injury, but they do get to return home after a grueling road trip.
NBA odds hit the board with the Heat installed as 2-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 214.5. Here are my best free Heat vs. Suns NBA picks and predictions for January 6.
Heat vs Suns best odds
Heat vs Suns picks and predictions
Miami's Bam Adebayo has been red-hot lately and has scored at least 30 points in three straight games. The All-Star center has expanded his offensive game this season and that, combined with increased touches, has led to him averaging a career-high 21.8 points on 15.9 field goal attempts per game.
The O/U on Adebayo's points total tonight is set at 21.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last eight games, averaging 25.6 points and 17.6 field-goal attempts per game during that span. He also had 30 points on 18 field goal attempts when he faced off against Deandre Ayton and the Suns back in November.
The Heat have been tough to trust this season, but Adebayo has been far more reliable, so take the Over on his points.
My best bet: Adebayo Over 21.5 points (-110)
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Heat vs Suns spread analysis
The Suns have been without Booker since December 17 when he erupted for 58 points against New Orleans. Without Booker and his 27.1 ppg, they've lost seven of their last eight games and have been held below 90 points in their last two contests.
The fact that they've also been without two other important offensive pieces in forward Cam Johnson (13 ppg, 43.1 3PT%) and guard Cameron Payne (12.1 points and 5.3 assists per game) certainly hasn't helped.
Neither has a lengthy road trip that saw them play their last six games away from home. They'll be happy to be back at Footprint Center, where they have gone 14-5 SU (11-8 ATS).
While the Suns must be happy to finally get some home cooking, the Heat are still in the midst of their own road trip since this will be their fifth consecutive away game against a Western Conference foe since last Friday.
Miami began this trip with a 124-119 loss to the Nuggets, followed up with back-to-back victories against the Jazz and Clippers, and most recently lost to the Lakers, 112-109 on Wednesday.
The Heat have been up and down all season and it's tough to see them as the Eastern Conference contender they've been over the last few years.
Their 3-point shooting has regressed from last season (from 36.8% to 34%) and their defense has fallen off a cliff. They were 12th in the league in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.4%) last season but are just 27th in opponent EFG% (55.6%) this year.
Miami still has some very talented players in Adebayo, two-way stud Jimmy Butler (21.5 ppg, 2.2 spg), and sharp-shooter Tyler Herro (21.1 ppg). The Heat also do an excellent job of pressuring ball handlers (second in the league in opponent turnover rate) and preventing scoring inside (league-low 44.9 ppg allowed in the paint).
Those will be crucial areas in this matchup with the Suns relying on Chris Paul's steady hand at point guard and Ayton becoming their No. 1 scoring option in Booker's absence.
Heat vs Suns Over/Under analysis
Ayton and small forward Mikal Bridges were both expected to step up on offense with Booker injured, but both have disappointed. Bridges is averaging just 12 ppg on 37.1% shooting in the last eight games while Ayton hasn't scored more than 15 points in any of his last three contests.
With those guys struggling, it's little surprise that the Suns are averaging just 94.3 ppg on 42.9 FG% over their last four games.
Although the Suns' offensive efficiency has plummeted without Booker, they have been solid defensively. They play at the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA and are ninth in the league in scoring defense with 111.2 ppg allowed.
The Heat play at an even slower tempo and limit foes to 109.5 ppg — the third-lowest number in the league.
Heat vs Suns betting trend to know
The Suns are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Suns.
Heat vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, January 6, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
