The Warriors have caught fire in the wake of Draymond Green’s suspension, finding their rotation and reeling off five straight victories before a close loss in Denver. Tonight, they’ll return home with a chance to make a statement with a win over Miami in the latest NBA odds.
Can the Heat remain tough on the road, or will they cave here against a trendy Golden State team? Let's get right into it with our in-depth NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Warriors on December 28.
Heat vs Warriors odds
Heat vs Warriors predictions
Golden State’s defeat at the hands of the mighty Nuggets came in extremely close fashion on Christmas Day, and it has now managed to cover the spread in four straight contests.
The strength of this Warriors team of late has lied firmly on the offensive side, where they’ve produced 119.5 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, ranking ninth in the league. We know exactly what this team wants to do when it has the ball, too, considering Golden State ranks fourth in frequency of shots from 3-point range and seventh from mid-range.
That should theoretically put it in a very good position against a Miami team ranked 23rd in defending the 3-pointer, and one that enters this evening with Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson all listed as questionable. On top of that, the Heat are already expecting to miss Josh Richardson and Caleb Martin on the wings.
The Heat's defense, which has already faced challenges in defending the outside shot, should find it even more difficult without several key players in their perimeter defense. On the flip side, the Warriors have excelled in 3-point defense, aligning well against a Miami roster that doesn't heavily rely on scoring around the rim.
My best bet: Warriors -5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Heat vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors -5.5
Brandin Ponziemski Over 10.5 points
Klay Thompson Over 3.5 threes
We’ll attack the Heat backcourt with two guys here. The first has to be Brandin Podziemski, a rookie who has caught fire for the Warriors in recent weeks. He’s become a huge part of this rotation and with increased minutes has been looked upon to score the ball.
He’s eclipsed 10.5 points in back-to-back games, and the fact that he’s seen 31 or more minutes in those contests is no coincidence. I expect Steve Kerr to continue leaning on his rookie guard to exploit the perimeter defense of the Heat.
Klay Thompson is also someone I want to bet on. His home-road shooting splits are downright dreadful at the moment, but he has historically shot better at home than the road so I’m willing to bet we see some positive regression to the mean in that area. For what it's worth, Thompson is a 47.4% shooter from deep over the last seven games — four of which have come at home.
Thompson has cleared this number in six of his last seven games, and one thing we can bank on here is that the volume will certainly be there for the veteran, given he’s attempted 10 or more threes in five straight and has averaged just under nine attempts from deep this season.
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Heat vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Warriors haven’t exactly been renowned for their defense this season, but they’ve been able to remain average on that end at the very least. The same can be said for the Heat, who rank 15th on offense and have relied on their defense, though their offensive attack will surely look much worse tonight with several key scorers looking likely to miss this contest.
I lean firmly towards the Under here, as scary as it may appear in a game with a low total. With that all said, 86% of the bets and 96% of the cash wagered on the total at DraftKings are on the Over, so do with that information what you will.
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Heat vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors have hit the first half moneyline in 53 of their last 84 games (+14.60 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Warriors.
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Heat vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, December 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Sun |
Heat vs Warriors latest injuries
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