Jalen Brunson Odds and Props: Inflated Totals Keep Knicks Guard in Check

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks will be looking to take a 2-0 series lead in their Eastern Conference Semi-Final matchup against the Indiana Pacers, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you our favorite Brunson player prop for Wednesday's game. 

Jalen Brunson has been on an absolute heater in his last five games, scoring 39, 47, 40, 41, and 43 points. Brunson is the first player since Michael Jordan to score 40+ points in four consecutive NBA playoff games. 

Am I riding the heater or fading an elevated total on Brunson's points prop in tonight's Pacers vs. Knicks predictions?

Find out in my free NBA picks for Wednesday, May 8. 

Jalen Brunson prop picks for May 8

• Jalen Brunson Under 37.5 points (-105 at bet365)
• Brunson Under 37.5 points, Under 8.5 assists, Knicks -9.5 (+1,000 at bet365)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jalen Brunson best bet

Jalen Brunson Under 37.5 points

I'm not going to sit here and pretend like the Indiana Pacers have this unstoppable defense that will shut down Jalen Brunson and send him Under his points total. In all honesty, it's quite the opposite reason as to why I like the Under.

The Pacers have multiple holes in their defense that the New York Knicks can exploit, and they don't need to be 100% dependent on Brunson scoring and creating all of their offense. If they were playing the Minnesota Timberwolves, you would be looking to lean on Brunson because the other players on the Knicks would be struggling to generate offense, but that is not the case against the Pacers.

Whether it's Donte DiVincenzo, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, or even Isaiah Hartenstein on the interior, the Knicks have other advantages in this series. Scoring won't be the issue for the Knicks against the Pacers, and while they continue to give Brunson elevated minutes, they should at the very least look to lighten his workload and not have him completely carry the offense. 

Brunson plays 40+ minutes every night for the Knicks, which are extremely stressful minutes as he is consistently asked to put the team's offense on his back. Against the Pacers, Brunson shouldn't have to carry this heavy of a workload.

This total at 37.5 is also just way too high in my opinion. I mean, I don't care who you are, at 37.5, you seriously have to take a long hard look at the Under. Brunson has scored 39 points or more in five straight games, which has driven this total up from 31.5 to 37.5, and that's just a massive number. Yes, Brunson has been on fire, but at the same time, his points total has also benefited from these games being extremely close, which puts the ball in Brunson's hands for the majority of the fourth quarter.

When I look at this total of 37.5 and I see a minutes projection of 44 minutes that still shows an edge on the Under, I just have to play it. Brunson could technically play 48 minutes, but if we still have an edge on the under 37.5 with a projection of 44 minutes, why are we not hitting the button? There's nowhere for this projection to go.

Brunson is projected to score 35.3 points on Wednesday against the Pacers, which allows us to price the under 37.5 points at -158, but it is available at bet365 at -105.

Prop: Under 37.5 points (-105 at bet365)

Jalen Brunson same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson Under 37.5 points

Jalen Brunson Under 8.5 assists

Knicks -9.5

+1,000 at bet365

There are multiple ways to play this with our SGP if it is based around the Under on Brunson's points prop. You could pair it with the Over on Brunson's assists prop and hope he is more of a creator of offense than hunting his own shot against this Pacers defense. But as our own Douglas Farmer wrote about in his best bet for this Knicks-Pacers matchup, which was Brunson Under on his assists total, I also just don't like this number for Brunson's assists total. 

That being said, I'm going to build this SGP with the idea that Brunson's minutes are decreased and the ball gets pulled out of his hands in the fourth quarter. So I'm going Under on Brunson's points and his assists, and then an alternate spread of Knicks -9.5. 

By pairing the alternate spread of Knicks -9.5 with both of Brunson's totals going Under, you create a very correlated scenario that could wind up in decreased minutes or even usage for Brunson, which would help both of these bets go Under the number.

We need something to disrupt Brunson's usage and minutes, and the game not being close in the fourth quarter could be exactly what we are hunting for.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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