The Utah Jazz are heading on the road to take on the Dallas Mavericks in what is currently slated as the 4-5 first-round matchup out West.
The Jazz (45-29) have hit some offensive turbulence with Bojan Bogdanovic still sidelined with injury. Meanwhile, the Mavericks (45-29) will look to get back on track after suffering a 21-point loss to Minnesota Friday night.
Who will come out on top in this Western Conference bout? Keep reading our NBA betting picks and predictions below to find out.
Jazz vs Mavericks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Dallas opened as slim 2-point favorites but has since been bet down to a pick'em as of 11:00 a.m. ET Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the total — which opened at 223.5 — has taken a nosedive down to 214 at the time of writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Jazz vs Mavericks predictions
Predictions made on 3/27/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jazz vs Mavericks game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Sunday, March 27, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV
Jazz vs Mavericks betting preview
Key injuries
Jazz: Bojan Bogdanovic F (Out), Hassan Whiteside C (Questionable), Danuel House Jr. (F (Out).
Mavericks: Davis Bertans F (Probable), Trey Burke G (Questionable), Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Jazz. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
Jazz vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Tonight's date with Dallas will be Utah's fifth of a six-game road swing — and it hasn't gone the way it's wanted.
The trip started with a 15-point win and cover at Madison Square Garden over the tanking New York Knicks but the Mavericks have since dropped three straight to Brooklyn, Boston, and Charlotte (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS on the road trip).
On the other hand, the Mavericks — who have been one of the NBA's strongest teams since the calendar flipped to 2022 — have lost three of five and will be desperate to put a 21-point blowout loss to Minnesota behind them tonight.
These squads faced off just three weeks ago in Dallas with the Mavericks winning 111-103 but Utah enters tonight in the midst of a dreadful road swing and will once again be without Bojan Bogdanovic, who had been red hot prior to being sidelined a couple of weeks ago.
While Donovan Mitchell has been posting strong individual numbers (32.5 ppg over his last six), the Jazz have really missed the secondary scoring punch that Bogdanovic provides. Utah's offense leads the NBA in offensive rating on the season but ranks just 13th since March 12 and has posted measly totals of 97 and 101 points in two of its last three games.
Now, that slumping Jazz offense is faced with a gritty Mavericks defense that ranks sixth in defensive rating and boasts the league's second-best scoring defense, allowing just 104.1 points per game.
And while the Mavericks have lost three of five, each of those losses came away from American Airlines Center. They've won five of six at home and welcome the Jazz into their building having won just one of their last six road contests.
Dallas' defense won't allow Utah to find its offensive footing and should follow Luka Doncic's offensive lead en route to a critical bounceback win.
Prediction: Mavericks PK (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup has seen some drastic movement. After opening at 223.5, it's dropped all the way down to 214 at the time of writing, and for very good reason.
We've already mentioned the poor state of Utah's offense. While Mitchell has been balling, the Jazz have proven much easier to defend without the threat of Bogdanovic. They've gone Under in three of four games to start this road trip and are averaging just 103 points per game over that stretch.
We've also talked about Mavericks' biggest strength — their defense — but it's who they are on offense that makes them such an Under-cashing powerhouse (48-25-1).
They grind out nearly every offensive possession in the half-court and rank dead-last (!) in pace. While the low 214-point total might be hard to stomach, these two teams in their current form provide just the formula needed for the Under to cash.
Prediction: Under 214 (-110)
Best bet
I'm backing the Mavericks at home with the best bet. Utah has really struggled on the road and Dallas will be desperate to put Friday night's blowout loss in the rearview.
The Jazz have failed to cover their last three games by an average of 14.3 points and are also 0-3 ATS on the season against Dallas. Without Bogdanovic, I don't see the tides turning for them tonight.
Pick: Mavericks PK (-110)
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