Kings vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sacramento Has Denver's Number

The Sacramento Kings have had the Denver Nuggets’ number this season. Sac Town has taken on the defending NBA champs three times this season, including twice in the last three weeks, with the Kings emerging victorious in all three.

Can Sacramento make it a perfect 4-for-4 when they travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets on Wednesday night? Well, the NBA odds don’t exactly like the Kings' chances as they're listed as sizeable road underdogs.

I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in my NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Nuggets.

Kings vs Nuggets odds

Kings vs Nuggets predictions

The Denver Nuggets enter tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings having won three in a row coming out of the All-Star break to improve their record to 39-19. That's good enough for third place in the Western Conference, just two games behind the Timberwolves and Thunder who are currently tied for first.

Meanwhile, the Kings just had a three-game winning streak snapped by a shorthanded Heat team in a game where they were 7.5-point home favorites. The loss dropped them to 33-24 and into seventh place in the West.

But despite the difference in records, the Kings have been a thorn in the side of the Nuggets all season long.

Sacramento has won all three meetings against Denver this season. The first was back on December 2 in Sacramento, where the Kings won 123-117 as 3.5-point home favorites. Then they played twice in five days, once in Sacramento and once in Denver on Feb. 9 and 14. respectively, but the location didn’t matter.

The Kings thumped the Nuggets 135-106 as 3-point home favorites and followed that up with a 102-98 victory as 5-point road dogs on Valentine’s Day.

Now, Jamal Murray missed two of those games and Michael Porter Jr. missed one, but two-time MVP Nikola Jokic played all three, and the Kings' ability to contain him has been a big part of that success.

He went off for a 36-point triple-double in the first game but Denver had no answer for the Kings offense and the performance wasn’t enough. In the last two meetings, Domantas Sabonis and Sacramento were able to limit him to 15 and 23 points, respectively, on a combined 44.1% shooting.

The other key for the Kings in these matchups has been the 3-ball. Now, a quick look at the stats and you would think this is an advantage for the Nuggets. They allow the third-fewest made threes and second-fewest attempts per game against a Kings team that's very reliant on the deep ball.

However, it seems the pure volume of capable 3-point shooters Sacramento employs has been a problem for Denver. The Kings have shot 44.1% from 3-point range, making an average of 14 threes over the three matchups vs. the Nuggets.

Now, when I first saw this line opened with the Kings as 8-point underdogs, I thought it was almost a certainty that De’Aaron Fox — who played a little hobbled last game and was listed as questionable most of the day — would sit this one out.

But Fox was a full participant in shootaround and it sounds like he’s good to go, but the line only moved a half-point. This line closed at Sacramento +5 when they last met in Denver on Feb. 14. There was no Murray in that game but that feels like an overadjustment.

The Kings know what they have to do to be competitive. Giving them 7.5 points is too much.

My best bet: Kings +7.5 (-110 at bet365)

Kings vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Kings +7.5

Harrison Barnes Over 1.5 made threes

Kentavous Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 assists

+575 at bet365

The Kings have a lot of shooters. So many in fact, that veteran Harrison Barnes can be overlooked at times, but he's upped his production from beyond the arc of late.

Barnes is shooting an impressive 41.8% on 6.1 attempted threes over his last 16 games. He’s hit 2+ threes 10 times over that span, including in each of the last two games against the Nuggets. Over 1.5 made threes is a good add.

Let’s close this SGP out with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to go Over 1.5 assists. KCP averages 2.3 assists per game this season and he’s gone Over this number in seven of his last nine games overall.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kings vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

As noted, the Kings opened this Western Conference clash as 8-point road underdogs with De’Aaron Fox listed as questionable, but it sounds like he’s going to suit up and the line move to Sacramento +7.5. 

However, I don’t think that’s enough considering the Kings were just 5-point underdogs in the last meeting and have been one of the best road bets in the NBA this season at 18-21-1 ATS.

The total for tonight’s matchup hit the board at 229 and has been bet up to 231.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s in line with the previous meetings which had closing totals of 234.5, 230, and 230. 

The first two meetings cruised Over the total. But the latest matchup was a defensive battle and fell 30 points below the number. I’d agree with the early number as the latest matchup feels like the outlier.

Kings vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Kings have covered the spread in 29 of their last 45 away games for +12.45 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Nuggets.

Kings vs Nuggets game info

Kings vs Nuggets latest injuries

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