Knicks vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Ball Movement Sparked by Brunson

It’s an Atlantic Division showdown on Friday, January 5 as the reigning MVP Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers hosts the New York Knicks. The Knicks are one of the most intriguing teams in the NBA right now, shaking up their core as they executed a surprising trade for OG Anunoby.

So far, the Knicks are 2-0 with OG in the lineup, but they are serious NBA odds underdogs to make it three in a row. Philadelphia has been one of the NBA’s elite teams all season long, and unlike the Knicks who are figuring out their new rotations, the 76ers are firing on all cylinders.

My NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. 76ers believe the recent trade is going to make Jalen Brunson a much more productive playmaker.

Knicks vs 76ers odds

Knicks vs 76ers predictions

The New York Knicks are a brand-new team. Okay, that’s overly dramatic, but for keen observers of New York over the last two seasons, there has been a stark break.

Some ripple effects from trading for OG Anunoby were easy enough to predict. A greater physicality on the defensive end, more spacing in the starting lineup, and more turnovers as Julius Randle is forced to lead a depleted second unit.

But one wrinkle that has emerged as a huge positive for New York so far has been the explosion in Jalen Brunon’s playmaking. In a stunning statistic shared on the MSG broadcast, they noted that no member of the Knicks had recorded double-digit assists this season until Brunson did so on New Year's Day against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Brunson now has 14 assists (a career high) and 13 over his last two games, the first with OG in the lineup.

Brunson has always been a score-first guard, but he’s also relentless about improving. The drop off in the Knicks' overall ball handling from the trade has been sharp, and that’s meant that Julius and Jalen are using more possessions than ever before as a tandem. Their minutes, touches, and production are both soaring. That might burn them out in the long run, but right now it makes these Jalen Brunson odds highly appealing.

The starting lineup now has one of the NBA’s best corner shooters in Anunoby to play off Brunson, and Randle can more easily occupy his preferred spots because RJ Barrett is no longer competing for the same space. The transition leak-outs that once were largely Barrett’s domain are also going to Randle, often on a kickout by Brunson.

The reason I prefer a Brunson prop here over Julius isn’t just based on his gaudy assist numbers over the last two games. It’s the lineups that Tom Thibodeau has him in. Randle and Brunson are now being aggressively staggered to ensure that one of them is on the court at all times, because they do not have the luxury of having Immanuel Quickley or Barrett take over the offense for a stretch of the game.

The group Randle is playing in has simply been a slog, with a quartet of players who can do little-to-nothing off the dribble or with the ball in their hands. By contrast, Brunson’s minutes are largely tied to Donte DiVincenzo, who is the Knicks' most consistent and aggressive 3-point shooter. The two seem to have a natural chemistry stemming from their time at Villanova.

And while they miss RJ’s ball handling, he did have a tendency towards tunnel vision at times. At least through two games, the ball has been moving significantly more since the trade, creating way more potential assists from Brunson than in games past. 

I think something closer to nine assists per game might be the new form for Jalen until they add another creator, so this prop is easily my favorite bet for Friday.

My best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 assists (+100 +150 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

Knicks vs 76ers same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 assists

Joel Embiid Over 11.5 rebounds

76ers -6.5

50% boost available

+650 +975 at DraftKings

Together with my Brunson assists prop, I’m going with Joel Embiid Over 11.5 rebounds and a 76ers cover at -6.5 to round out Friday’s same-game parlay.

Embiid returned against the Chicago Bulls after missing four games with an ankle injury and hadn’t missed a beat. Joel kept his streak of 30+ points and 10+ rebounds going while again playing just over 31 minutes in the Sixers blowout. Embiid is averaging 13.2 rebounds per game in his last five, and he’s sat in most of those fourth quarters.

I don’t expect this game to be a blowout, and if Embiid plays anything close to a normal distribution of minutes, I just don’t see how he doesn’t get to at least 12 rebounds. The Knicks shoot a lot of shots close to the rim, and while Isaiah Hartenstein has been sensational lately, Embiid is a different level of competition.

The Knicks have looked good overall in their two wins since adding OG, but the flaws have been evident as well. They can’t win against a good team unless both Brunson and Randle have highly productive games, and the amount of offense they’re being asked to carry is enormous. 

The Knicks bench was also their great strength, and now they’re bleeding points whenever Brunson is out of the game. They still have quite a bit to figure out, while the 76ers are humming like a well-oiled machine.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Knicks vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

The 76ers opened as -5.5 points favorites for Friday, which has seen a bump to -6.5 with public money coming in on the home team.

The 76ers have a +8.2-point differential over their last six games. That’s despite two losses to the Bulls and having been without Embiid for both games. The supporting cast around Embiid has never been stronger and they absolutely deserve to be considered one of the inner-circle title contenders. The 76ers are also 12-3 against the spread as home favorites this season, the best mark in the NBA.

The Knicks are playing well, but they’re a piece away from being on that level. The early returns on the OG trade are positive. Not only has OG been everything the Knicks were hoping for as a defensive stopper, he’s providing the kind of spacing that was occasionally only theoretically offered by Barrett. 

They do desperately miss the life that IQ brought to the second unit, and turnovers have been a problem that could doom them against Philly.

The total for Knicks vs. 76ers opened at 225.5 and has risen a touch to as high as 227.5 at some sportsbooks.

While Hartenstein has been a revelation starting for the Knicks, this is a troublesome matchup. Embiid is an elite foul-drawer, and the big man rotation behind Hartenstein for the Knicks consists of Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims. 

Achiuwa has not inspired confidence early and Sims has hardly seen the court. I can see the Knicks' defense collapsing if Embiid puts the pressure on their frontcourt early.

In turn, I think New York should score fairly well against the 76ers, particularly as De’Anthony Melton isn’t available to cover Brunson. I’d lean Over if you can still find it below 227.

Knicks vs 76ers betting trend to know

The 76ers are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. 76ers.

Knicks vs 76ers game info

Knicks vs 76ers latest injuries

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