Injuries have derailed the New Orleans Pelicans’ season, and the Dallas Mavericks can sympathize at the moment as they arrive in the Big Easy tonight without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
That leaves Dallas searching for a boost offensively as the Western Conference playoff pack closes in, and my Mavericks vs. Pelicans predictions point to their four-time champion answering the call.
My NBA picks dig into a January 15 battle that Zion Williamson will also miss.
Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Klay Thompson Over 15.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
When Klay Thompson signed with the Dallas Mavericks this summer, the vision was a No. 3 role in this potent offense, but with Luka Doncic sidelined and Kyrie Irving sitting out on the second night of a back-to-back set, the onus is on Klay to be in attack mode tonight.
On a short-term basis, Thompson can embrace that role. He’s gone past this 15.5 number three times already this month, including a 25-point explosion against the Nuggets on Sunday, and I’m taking the Over on his points prop here.
Klay isn’t going to barrel his way to the free throw line, but he’s averaging eight 3-point attempts a game, and he’s making them at a 38% clip. That’s translated to knocking down at least three 3-pointers in five of his past seven contests.
The Mavs simply have to get him involved tonight. He only took eight shots in last night’s heavy losses, and there just aren’t enough other scoring options if Thompson is passive.
Dallas can call on Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy to handle point guard duties, but I envision plenty of late-clock possessions where Klay comes to the rescue with his quick-trigger release.
Herb Jones, the New Orleans Pelicans’ best perimeter defender, is still out with a shoulder issue, and Klay’s movement is a big reason for the Mavs ranking in the Top 10 in 3-point percentage this season. Someone has to put points on the board for the visitors, and I’m wagering on their most proven bucket-getter.
Mavericks vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Klay Thompson Over 15.5 points
CJ McCollum Over 2.5 threes
Under 223.5
C.J. McCollum has served up some of the top highlights in this lost Pelicans season, and his 3-point shooting continues to be a huge factor on a roster short on spacing. He’s had some monster games this month, including a 10-for-16 effort from deep on the way to 50 points against the Wizards, and he’s up to 43% from downtown in January.
Zion Williamson’s absence tonight, as New Orleans eases him back from a hamstring injury, should mean more volume for McCollum, and I see his sharpshooting hurting the Mavs..
The Under is 7-3 in Dallas’ last 10 games, and the Mavs will have to rejig their rotation again here with Kyrie out and Dereck Lively II limping off with an ankle injury last night against the Nuggets. That’s sure to take a toll on the visitors’ offense.
I’m also wary of a drop-off in New Orleans’ scoring after three straight games with at least 119 points. Without Zion to create dynamic plays in the paint, the Pelicans are heavily reliant on outside shooting, and they’re averaging the fifth-fewest points per game in the league this season.
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Mavericks vs Pelicans odds
Mavericks vs Pelicans live odds
Mavericks vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -1 | New Orleans +1
- Moneyline: Dallas -115 | New Orleans -105
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavs opened as slight favorites before the Kyrie news dropped, and they’ve since slipped to slight underdogs. Dallas has lost seven of its past nine contests, going 1-8 ATS in that span.
- The Pelicans are 17-24 ATS this season, but they’re 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games and have covered the spread in their past three outings.
- The Mavs landed a blowout 132-91 win over New Orleans in November and enter with a 10-10 road record.
- The first-half Over has been a winning ticket in 28 of the Pelicans’ last 41 home games, but it’s hard to see a shootout with so much firepower in street clothes.
Mavericks vs Pelicans trend
The Under is 58-39 in the Mavericks’ last 97 games despite their elite shotmakers. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Mavericks vs Pelicans
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KFAA, GCSEN |
Mavericks vs Pelicans latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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