Houston won the 2023-24 season series against Denver 3-1, but the Nuggets will look to start the 2024-25 series out on a high note with a win in front of the home crowd at Ball Arena.
My Rockets vs. Nuggets predictions expect electric second-year forward Amen Thompson to continue rolling in his first career matchup with the Nuggets. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Thompson’s combo prop.
Rockets vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Amen Thompson Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Amen Thompson has posted eye-popping numbers over his last four games, earning a starting spot with Jabari Smith Jr. sidelined for the Houston Rockets. Across his last four, Thompson has averaged 18 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists across 39.8 minutes. In that span, he ranks third in scoring, third in assists, first in rebounds, and first in minutes played.
Thompson’s impact on the court is certainly measurable from a wins and losses perspective. The team is 8-1 straight-up in nine games with him in the starting lineup, and Houston is 21-11 in 32 games with him on the bench. In those starts, he’s averaged 14.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists, good for 28.4 PRAs. Thompson has hit the Over on this line in 18 of those 32 starts.
Thompson hasn’t always gotten significant playing time, but he’s been effective on a per-minute basis. In his career, Thompson has averaged 15.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per 36 minutes, which is good for 29.2 PRAs. In 32 games played with at least 30 minutes, he’s gone for at least 29 PRAs 18 times. He’s hit the Over in 12 of 17 career games played with at least 35 minutes.
Tonight’s matchup with a hot Denver Nuggets team should afford Thompson plenty of playing time, and he could push for 40 minutes in this tightly-contested affair. I expect him to stay hot and cash the Over on this modest line.
Rockets vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Amen Thompson Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists
Over 231.5
Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 rebounds + assists
Denver has hit the Over in 12 of 19 games at home this season, and the Nuggets are 3-1 to the Over as home dogs. The team has hit the Over in four of the last six at Ball Arena.
Houston has hit the Over in nine of 17 on the road, and the team is 6-5 to the Over as the road favorite.
On the season, Denver ranks fourth in offensive rating at 117.3, and Houston ranks 11th at 113.4. Over the last 10 games, the Nuggets are second in offensive rating at 121.2, and the Rockets are seventh at 117.5. I expect this to be a high-scoring game between two of the Association’s best offenses.
Nikola Jokic’s scoring has been down over the last week, but he’s continued rolling as a playmaker and rebounder. Jamal Murray is Denver’s leading scorer over the last three games, while Russell Westbrook has averaged 18.5 points in that span, and Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have made productive contributions.
Jokic might not be relied on to lead the team in scoring, but he should continue to rebound and facilitate at an elite level. He’s hit the Over on this line in 22 of 34 games overall and 11 of 17 at home this season.
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Rockets vs Nuggets odds
Rockets vs Nuggets live odds
Rockets vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Houston -1 (-110) | Denver +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -115 | Denver -105
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has won four straight but covered only twice in that span, bringing the team’s record to 26-12 straight-up and 22-16 ATS.
- Denver has won and covered in four straight, and the team is 24-15 straight-up and 19-19-1 ATS.
- The Rockets have gone 3-0-1 to the Over across their last four, and Houston is 19-18-1 to the Over this season.
- The Nuggets have hit the Over twice in their last four and in 23 of 39 games in 2024-25.
Rockets vs Nuggets trend
Houston is 9-2 straight-up as the road favorite this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Rockets vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, ALT |
Rockets vs Nuggets latest injuries
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