There’s a mismatch at the KeyBank Center, with the basement-dwelling Buffalo Sabres hosting the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday, January 15.
Carolina continues to show off with sterling advanced statistics, and my top Hurricanes vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks are calling for another tough go for Buffalo tonight.
Hurricanes vs Sabres prediction
My best bet
Hurricanes in regulation (-110 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Carolina Hurricanes are once again an analytical darling with a top-ranked 59.2 Corsi For percentage and 55.9 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. Add pacing the NHL with a 85.0 penalty-kill percentage and ranking sixth in goals per game (3.34), and it isn’t surprising to see Carolina hanging with the betting favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.
It’s a different story in the Nickel City, with the Buffalo Sabres hanging solo in the Eastern Conference basement.
Buffalo ranks 26th with a 48.1 xGF% at 5-on-5 and a 17.7 power-play percentage, and the Sabres also allow the sixth-most goals per game (3.37). Additionally, Buffalo is the perfect opponent for Carolina to cash in on some short-term statistical correction at 5-on-5.
The Hurricanes sport a 5-3-2 record out of the holiday break despite sporting the fifth-lowest PDO (97.7), which includes a 29th-ranked .899 team save percentage. Carolina also ranks sixth with a 55.4 xGF% but have a 50.0 GF% at 5-on-5 during the 10-game surge.
Even more specifically, I’m expecting more from Carolina goalie Pyotr Kochetkov. His .894 SV% and 2.85 GAA across seven games out of the break are well below his respective .910 and 2.37 prior career numbers.
Hurricanes vs Sabres same-game parlay (SGP)
Hurricanes in regulation
Under 6.5
Brent Burns Over 1.5 shots on goal
Pair the expected positive regression in the crease with Carolina allowing the 10th-fewest goals per game (2.75) and ninth-fewest xGF (2.34) at 5-on-5, and I think Buffalo will struggle to contribute to this Over on Wednesday.
The Hurricanes have also gone Under the number in three of their past four games to contribute to a long-standing trend of hitting the Under in 52 of their past 95 (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI).
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns has two or more shots in 26 of 44 games this season with an average of 2.18 per while logging a team-high 21:25 of ice time per night.
This is a good matchup for Burns, too. The Sabres allow the ninth-most shots per game (29.2), and they spend the fifth-most time per game shorthanded (5:10). Additionally, the veteran also ranks in the 94th percentile of defensemen in offensive zone time at even strength and 96th in shots on goal, and he sports a high-end 57.8 CF% at 5-on-5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hurricanes vs Sabres odds
Hurricanes vs Sabres live odds
Hurricanes vs Sabres opening odds
- Puck line: Carolina -1.5 | Buffalo +1.5
- Moneyline: Carolina -181 | Buffalo +159
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Hurricanes vs Sabres trend
The Hurricanes have hit the Under in 52 of their last 95 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Sabres.
How to watch Hurricanes vs Sabres
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Hurricanes vs Sabres latest injuries
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