Knicks vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: Ingram Carries Scoring Load

The New Orleans Pelicans will try to improve their playoff seeding on Friday when they host the New York Knicks.

The Knicks (47-33) are locked into the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference and will play the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. The Pelicans (41-39) know they’ll at least finish safely in the play-in tournament as the No. 9 seed in the West, but could move up to as high as No. 5 with wins in their final two games.

New Orleans wants to win on Friday, and that should mean plenty of time and usage for stars like Brandon Ingram. We’ll break down how that might play out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Pelicans on April 7.

Knicks vs Pelicans best odds

Knicks vs Pelicans picks and predictions

With Zion Williamson out of the lineup yet again, Brandon Ingram has taken over the role of leading scoring and first option for the New Orleans Pelicans. They've won eight of their last 10 games and during that stretch, Ingram is averaging 28.8 points per game.

That sets Ingram up for a big game against the New York Knicks. With New York locked into their playoff position, the Knicks are working more on making sure they’re healthy for the postseason than running out the best lineup possible. 

Julius Randle will miss the rest of the regular season with a left ankle sprain, an injury the Knicks hope will be cleared up in time for the playoffs. Jalen Brunson missed New York’s game on Wednesday, while RJ Barrett has been out for two games with an illness. 

Brunson is listed as out for Friday night, while Barrett remains questionable. And while the Knicks still have a fair amount of talent aside from those top guys, this is definitely a diminished squad on both the offensive and defensive end. 

That’s why the Pelicans come in as a big favorite tonight, but while potentially lopsided games sometimes make bettors wary about taking the Over on props for the winning team, I don’t think that will be a problem tonight.

New Orleans is going to be desperate to fight their way out of the play-in tournament, or at the very least, move into the 7 vs. 8 game to get two bites at the playoff apple. Even if the Pelicans get out to a solid lead in the second half, coach Willie Green won’t treat the situation like garbage time until much later than normal.

That gives me a lot of confidence in the player props for all of the top players on the Pelicans. However, I’m focusing on Ingram tonight, as he figures to be the most likely beneficiary of the Knicks’ injuries and the centerpiece of the New Orleans offense. 

There are a number of different lines available on Ingram’s point total tonight, with various books offering with 26.5 or 27.5 as their main number. I’m going with the best NBA odds I can find on the lower number and counting on the Pelicans to feed their best scorer the ball in a game they desperately want to win in front of their home fans.

My best bet: Brandon Ingram Over 26.5 points (-113)

Knicks vs Pelicans spread analysis

The Pelicans opened tonight’s game as a 7.5-point favorite over the Knicks. The line has moved further in their favor since then, with Pelicans -8 now the consensus spread. You can even find some books offering New York +8.5 if you want to back the Knicks here.

In a vacuum, the Knicks are the better team in this matchup, with a far better record and point differential. New York also comes into tonight’s game on a five-game winning streak. The Knicks have treated bettors quite well this year too, going 44-33-3 against the spread, while the Pelicans have a 39-41 record ATS. The Knicks are even a solid 24-16 on the road.

But there are significant mitigating factors. As I talked about above, this is a very important game for New Orleans and one that has absolutely no bearing on the Knicks.

New York is also working towards getting healthy for the postseason, meaning they won’t be rushing anyone back in the lineup for this meaningless (from their perspective) matchup. You may even see minutes reduced for the remaining starters to keep them fresh.

You never want to assume anything about a situation like this, as New York will be putting out a professional lineup that won’t be a complete pushover, but given the situation, the Pelicans should win this game comfortably. My preference is to back New Orleans and lay the points.

Knicks vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 226 points. That number has come down significantly, with the consensus Over/Under sitting at 223.5.

This appears to be a reaction to the fact that the Knicks will continue to rest some of their key players as they prepare for the playoffs.

With the offensive firepower down a bit on New York’s side, the total has dropped a bit as well. The fact that players like Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Quintin Grimes can still capably lead the Knicks offense is the only reason the number hasn’t fallen further.

If these teams were playing in a midseason matchup, the total of 226 would seem just a tad low, but right in the expected range for two relatively slow-paced teams with solid but not spectacular offensive numbers. The adjustment, then, comes down to the question of how much you think the loss of players like Brunson and Barrett will discount New York’s scoring punch.

I don’t think there’s a clear answer to this question. My gut says that the Under is still the right play, as the Pelicans are also a slightly worse offensive team than their overall numbers suggest since Zion Williamson is not in the lineup.

However, my real inclination is to stay off the total, as I’m not sure what exactly we’ll be getting out of New York and how that will impact the pace of play tonight.

Knicks vs Pelicans betting trend to know

Brandon Ingram has scored at least 27 points in seven of his last 11 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Pelicans.

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