Knicks vs Suns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Randle Bullies His Way to Buckets

It only took until mid-December, but the Phoenix Suns’ big three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal finally all took the court together on Wednesday. The growing pains were on full display however, as they lost at home to the Brooklyn Nets, their partners (and rivals) in the KD trade. 

They host the original Empire State team on Friday, December 15, as the New York Knicks head to the Footprint Center to avenge their loss from earlier this season. The Knicks are hoping to end a skid that’s seen them lose three of their last four, but they’ll have to do so as NBA odds underdogs, and without Mitchell Robinson, who is out for at least two months following ankle surgery.

My NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Suns take a look at how Julius Randle has begun to look like an All-NBA caliber player again after a shaky start this season.

Knicks vs Suns odds

Knicks vs Suns predictions

We're living in an era where the draft and trades rule NBA team building. Very few meaningful free agents change teams and end up difference-makers for their new squad. I mean, how many teams have signed a free agent since 2019 who has made multiple All-NBA teams? And how many have paid that same player less than a maximum contract for their services?

The number is awfully low. In fact, the number is just one. The New York Knicks struck gold when they lured Julius Randle from New Orleans in free agency four years ago, but the way Randle is often discussed by fans and media members, you might not realize it.

It’s understandable because Randle is the living embodiment of a roller coaster player. He’s inarguably had two of the best Knicks seasons in modern vintage over his four years in New York. He’s also turned two that probably took a decade of life off the most diehard orange and blue fans on the planet. 

This year, he’s had it both ways. Randle was coming off ankle surgery and he started off historically poorly, shooting below 20% at the rim for several games. Turning the ball over. Not getting back on defense. It looked like the roller coaster had hit a new nadir.

But it didn’t last. The Julius of the last several weeks has been the best version to ever play in New York. Given that the man made those two aforementioned All-NBA teams, that’s one hell of an accomplishment.

The incredible thing is that it’s all a mindset and tactical change that’s done it. Last year, Randle improved his efficiency by taking a boatload of threes and making them at a decent clip. This year, he’s taking more shots in the midrange but is scoring much more efficiently. 

That’s counter to how most players grow their games these days, but it’s a formula that makes sense given Randle's best attribute: his strength.

He’s simplified his game and honed it to a fine edge. He powers his way in from the left block, creates space, and takes most of his shots from about six feet away. Since November 21, Julius is taking 38% of his shots from the short midrange which is 96th percentile among all forwards. Randle is scoring 130.4 points per 100 possessions on 28.8% usage per Cleaning the Glass, in large part because nobody can stop him from getting to that spot.

While the Knicks got waxed in the In-Season Tournament quarterfinal against the Milwaukee Bucks, it wasn’t because of Randle. It will be lost to time now, but Randle took it to Giannis Antetokounmpo in that game and physically dominated him for large stretches. Giannis was visibly frustrated by it, which is no mean feat.

Randle is averaging 29.4 points over his last five games, shooting 61.3% from the field, 47.4% from three, and 85.7% from the line. He’s also scored 25 or more in six out of his last eight games. 

As the Phoenix Suns lack a power forward anywhere near as strong as Giannis to bang with Randle, I think these Julius Randle odds make for a strong value bet.

My best bet: Julius Randle Over 24.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Knicks vs Suns same-game parlay

Julius Randle Over 24.5 points 

Jusuf Nurkic Over 2.5 assists 

Over 229.5 points

+365 at DraftKings

Having gone with Randle for my best bet, I also wanted to highlight the play of Jusuf Nurkic as part of my same-game parlay for Friday. Nurkic is the true unsung hero of the Suns offense, but for a non-star player, he’s unusually important to everything they do.

For now, a lot of the Suns' plays start with a Nurkic screen. That’s a comfortable, easy play for all of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal to work off of and around. That inevitably means that Nurkic is put in play as a decision-maker a lot. 

He’s also not a strong finisher for a big man, so he’d rather make a pass on the short roll if the option is on the table.  Those passes often lead to corner shooters, and the Knicks have been getting killed on kickouts to the corner in the last several games. Nurkic is averaging 3.8 assists over his last 10 games and has only had fewer than three once in his last nine.

For the last leg of my SGP, I’m taking the Over at 229.5. While the Knicks' defense has flagged in recent weeks, their offense has begun to tick back up the heights it reached last season. 

While the Knicks are just eighth in offense this season, they finished second last year behind only the all-time best Sacramento Kings. With Randle scoring at will and a hole in the starting lineup where their center used to be, I expect the Knicks to contribute to the Over on both ends in this one.

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Knicks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Friday’s spread is available anywhere between -4.5 and -5.5 in favor of the Suns. Both Phoenix and New York are coming off disappointing losses, with Phoenix getting out-dueled by its former players on the Brooklyn Nets and the Knicks dropping a lifeless effort to the Utah Jazz.

The Knicks' losses to the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics in back-to-back games weren’t alarming, New York isn’t ready to compete with that caliber of team unless it catches some breaks. What was distressing given its current trajectory was the lackluster loss to the Jazz, who have a -7.7 net rating. 

Immanuel Quickley’s role on the team also continues to puzzle. Even on a night when Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett were struggling badly and IQ was hot, he couldn’t get close to 30 minutes of action when the Knicks needed it badly. Things just aren’t clicking on all cylinders.

The Suns might be less than the sum of their parts as they figure this thing out — but the parts are still damn good. Beal in particular will take time to fit in as a third option, so the door is open for the Knicks to cover or even win this one. It’s just hard to have much faith in either squad at this juncture.

Both teams are underperforming the spread by a little over three points a game over the last two weeks per Cleaning the Glass. Phoenix has also dealt with a lot of injuries. Grayson Allen and Josh Okogie are both out again, and Eric Gordon is questionable. That’s basically all its perimeter depth. The Suns have also struggled against the spread at home. They’re just 5-8 ATS at home this season.

The total for Knicks at Suns opened at 230.5 and is available as low as 229.5 at a few sportsbooks.

The Knicks are already missing Robinson badly. Over their last five games, they have a 126.6 defensive rating, better only than the Washington Wizards. Part of that was that the Bucks just made a million threes against them, but they’ve also slipped in other areas.

While Robinson’s rim protection numbers weren’t fantastic, he forces a lot of opponents to not take shots inside at all and is one of the best two-way rebounders in the NBA. The Knicks have been getting killed on the offensive glass in his absence, and if New York can’t win the possession game against teams they really don’t have much of a path to victory, and opposing teams like Phoenix are likely to score at a high rate. 

Knicks vs Suns betting trend to know

Phoenix is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Suns.

Knicks vs Suns game info

Knicks vs Suns latest injuries

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