Lakers vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Bryant Fills Role, Cleans Glass in Atlanta

Things have been falling apart for the Los Angeles Lakers, having lost five of their last. 

On Friday night, they will travel to face the Atlanta Hawks, who have been struggling as of late as well, as losers of three of their last four.

Can Trae Young and the Hawks play through the noise and secure a much-needed home win or will Lebron James and the Lakers steal one on the road in arguably a much more-needed win?

Continue reading for our free NBA picks for the Lakers vs. Heat on Friday, December 30th.

Lakers vs Hawks best odds

Lakers vs Hawks picks and predictions

Since Anthony Davis suffered a foot injury, the Lakers have looked like an entirely different team. They rank 14th in offensive rating, 27th in defensive rating, and 25th in net rating. They have gotten careless with the ball, ranking 25th in assist-to-turnover ratio despite maintaining a similar pace (eighth). And, obviously, without Davis's presence, their rebounding has plummeted as well (19th).

That last point may be an excellent point of attack value-wise for Friday night's game, however. The Hawks play at the seventh-fastest pace on the year but rank below average in team field goal percentage (19th) and 22nd in team rebounding rate. That will open up things for Thomas Bryant, who has stepped in as the starter since Davis's injury.

It took a few games for Bryant to find his groove on the glass, but in his last five games, he has owned that part of the role. During that span, only seven players have secured more contested rebounds per game than him (averaging 4.3 per game) while maintaining a higher rebounding rate on contested rebounds (52.3%).

While the Hawks have a plethora of rebounding talent between Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, and John Collins, they have not been particularly impressive this year on the offensive glass (18th in offensive rebounding rate). That leaves plenty of opportunities for Bryant, and to make his life easier, Capela has been declared out for Friday's game.

My best bet: Thomas Bryant Over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)

Lakers vs Hawks spread analysis

The spread opened with the Hawks as -7.5 favorites and has since moved down a full point at some shops. 

The Lakers are 13-22 against the spread, boasting the second-lowest cover rate on the season (37.1%). As away underdogs, they are 4-13 against the spread (23.5%), and they have covered just once in their last seven games. They are also 1-9 against the spread as underdogs of seven or more points.

Atlanta is better against the spread but not by much, having gone 14-20-1 (41.2%). The Hawks are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine and have gone 5-9 against the spread as home favorites. As favorites of seven or more points, they have gone 2-5 against the spread despite going 5-2 straight up in that split.

Between Davis's absence and the extremely poor play that has resulted, the trade noise surrounding Trae Young, and the injury uncertainty heading into this game (Lebron James, Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, Trae Young, and De'Andre Hunter are all listed as day-to-day), the spread is a tough value proposition to diagnose.

Lakers vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 239 and has since moved as high as 242 at some shops, and is tied for the highest mark on Friday's slate.

Los Angeles has gone 21-14 to the over, good for the highest Over rate in the league at 60.0%. The Lakers have gone 11-6 to the Over as road underdogs and have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 16. However, tonight's total north of the 240 mark is the first of the season for the Lakers.

The Hawks have gone 20-15 to the Over (57.1%), the sixth-highest Over rate in the league. However, they are 10-8 to the Under at home and have gone Under in their two games with totals of 240 or higher.

The abnormally high total should be a clear red flag, especially with the total having already moved three points upwards since opening and with neither team having played in many totals this high.

But, again, with the lack of clarity on the injury front with six players listed as day-to-day at the time of this writing, it would be incredibly bold to be convinced of either direction on the total.

Lakers vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Lakers are 1-9 against the spread as underdogs of seven or more points. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Hawks.

Lakers vs Hawks game info

Lakers vs Hawks key injuries

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