The Oklahoma City Thunder have won five of their last six since the All-Star break, and they’ll look to add another win tonight when they host the Houston Rockets.
My Rockets vs Thunder predictions expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to excel and for Houston’s dynamic duo of Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun to rack up the counting stats.
Read my NBA picks for March 3.
Rockets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 42.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The MVP frontrunner always has a shot to eclipse his combo prop total, and tonight is certainly no different as he faces a familiar opponent.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had great success against the Houston Rockets across the last two seasons, and I expect him to continue that trend tonight.
Across his last six matchups with the Rockets, SGA has averaged 43.5 PRA and hit the Over three times. In that span, he’s totaled exactly 42 PRA twice.
The Rockets’ typically-elite defense has been generous to opposing PGs across the last seven games. In that span, Houston has surrendered 26 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.5 assists to the position, which is good for 40.1 PRA.
During the season, SGA is averaging a career-best 43.7 PRA. That includes 44.7 at home and just 42.5 on the road. Gilgeous-Alexander has been quite comfortable at Paycom Center this season, and he’ll be back in front of the home crowd after three straight and six of seven on the road.
Rockets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 42.5 points+rebounds+assists
Amen Tompson 5+ assists
Alperen Sengun double-double
Fred VanVleet will be sidelined tonight, meaning versatile point forward Thompson should be in line for additional responsibilities as a playmaker.
Thompson has averaged just 2.8 assists per game with FVV healthy but double that amount with him on the sideline. With VanVleet out, Thompson has dished 5.6 assists across 14 games and handed out at least five 11 times.
Sengun has posted a double-double in six of his last seven and 36 of 57 games this season. That’s good for 63.2% of his appearances, and the odds are unsurprisingly set at -190 for this one.
Rather than taking it as a straight wager, I’m happy to include it as an anchor in our three-leg parlay. The Thunder have allowed 24.8 points and 16.7 rebounds across their last seven, setting Sengun up nicely to cash this prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rockets vs Thunder score predicton
Thunder 117, Rockets 110
Houston is 8-4-1 ATS as the road dog this season, and Oklahoma City has outscored the Rockets by 6.6 points across the last seven head-to-head meetings.
Rockets vs Thunder odds
Rockets vs Thunder live odds
Rockets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Houston +9 | Oklahoma City -9
- Moneyline: Houston +300 | Oklahoma City -380
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston is 2-2-1 ATS across its last five games, while Oklahoma City has covered in three of its last six games.
- The Rockets are 30-29-1 to the Over and the Thunder have hit the Over in six straight.
Rockets vs Thunder trend
The Houston Rockets have only hit the game total Under in 34 of their last 81 games (-16.50 Units / -19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Rockets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network, FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma |
Rockets vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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