The Sacramento Kings’ slim playoff hopes took a hit this week with a hamstring injury to Domantas Sabonis. Sacramento will need production from Jonas Valanciunas, his replacement, to tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.
My Kings vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks expect Valanciunas to live on the glass, with tip coming at 8:30 ET on Monday, March 3.
Kings vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 rebounds (-150 at bet365)
My analysis
In the last month, Domantas Sabonis has averaged 13.4 rebounds in 14 games, including snagging 15 boards against the Dallas Mavericks just before the All-Star Break. That was Daniel Gafford’s last appearance, getting injured 10 minutes into the game.
So, the Mavericks’ front line was as depleted on Feb. 10 as it is now. They're still missing Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Gafford.
Jonas Valanciunas is not the same player as Sabonis. Few are, but their games are more redundant than you may think.
Valanciunas has taken 19.9 shots per 100 possessions per game, more than Sabonis’ 17.7. This difference is ascribed to the 49 games Valanciunas played for the weapon-less Wizards.
More pertinently, the healthy big man has grabbed 19.3 rebounds per 100 possessions, which aligns with the injured big man’s rate of 19.4 rebounds per 100 possessions. To further emphasize how much their games overlap, realize Valanciunas has dished out five assists per 100 possessions, which is less of a tick downward from Sabonis’s 8.5 assists per 100 possessions than many would assume.
To say that more simply, Valanciunas should slip into Sabonis’ role, and little else about Sacramento should change. With that in mind, Valanciunas will live on the boards like Sabonis would against Dallas.
Look back to Saturday, when Sabonis aggravated his hamstring after just 76 seconds of action. Valanciunas stepped in with 30 minutes of work and snagged 14 rebounds to go with his 15 points.
That was against the Rockets, a far better team inside than the Mavs. Moses Brown is not enough of a front line to slow down an old-school post presence like JV.
Kings vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 rebounds
Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 points
Under 231.5
Expecting Valanciunas to step in for Sabonis on the boards fits with expecting him to step in on the scoreboard, too. And, again, Valanciunas scored 15 points in Houston two nights ago, going against Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks — a far better front line than Dallas’.
Perhaps partly because of the injuries, the Mavericks have become an Under team, cashing six Unders in their last nine games, including four of their previous five. The Kings will be okay with that, having hit the Under in three straight games.
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Kings vs Mavericks score prediction
Kings 113, Mavericks 107
These two tied at 116 before overtime in Dallas on Feb. 10. Less should be expected without Sabonis and Gafford, particularly as both teams inch toward flailing into the Play-In Tournament.
Kings vs Mavericks odds
Kings vs Mavericks live odds
Kings vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +1.5 | Dallas -1.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento +110 | Dallas -130
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with the Kings as 1.5-point underdogs late on Sunday, jumping the fence to -1.5 as the Monday workday began.
- It climbed to -2.5 late in the morning, steadying there in the afternoon.
- The total opened on Sunday at 235.5 and steadily fell to 232 before the night’s end, reaching 231.5 before sunrise.
- The total dabbled at 231 on Monday morning but has settled at 231.5.
Kings vs Mavericks trend
The Kings have covered the spread in three straight, notable given Sabonis’s injury early on Saturday. Sacramento has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 17.5 points in those three games. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Kings vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports California, KFAA/WFAA |
Kings vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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