The Denver Nuggets continue their road to repeat in Game 2 of the NBA Western Conference quarterfinals tonight after scoring a victory over the Los Angeles Lakers in the series opener.
Denver is a 7.5-point home favorite inside Ball Arena on Monday, and below, I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 2 and give my Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions and best NBA picks for April 22, where the Lakers look to regain their bearings in the paint.
Lakers vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet
Anthony Davis Over 12.5 rebounds (-106 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When you’re playing a team as good as the Denver Nuggets, you can’t let them have easy buckets, but that was their edge in Game 1 of this opening-round series.
Denver outhustled the Lakers in transition, scored 64 points in the paint, and picked up extra-chance buckets (18 second-chance points to be exact) thanks in part to 15 offensive rebounds.
“Obviously, giving up second-chance points and some untimely turnovers on our part,” Los Angeles head coach Darvin Ham told reporters. “It’s the intangible game and that’s the game you really have to fight with good teams like Denver, championship teams like Denver. The little things matter. The details and the discipline.”
Ham and the Lakers want to slow down the pace of Game 2 and force Denver to play more of a halfcourt offense, instead of giving up high-percentage looks in transition and on offensive putbacks. That also puts importance on cleaning the glass, a job that falls on the broad shoulders of Anthony Davis.
Davis had a stellar Game 1 effort, scoring 32 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the loss. His rebounding total for tonight’s second game is set at 12.5 board Over/Under, which is one rebound shorter than his Game 1 total (13.5).
Since returning from a head injury suffered in early April, Davis has been battling on the boards. He’s topped his rebounding total in three of his last four games, with the lone Under coming in the final game of the regular season in which he only logged 33 minutes (11 rebounds vs. total of 13.5).
NBA player prop projections range for Davis’ work on the window tonight, with some forecasts topping out at 12 rebounds while the majority of models sourced (including our own Covers projection) call for as many as 16 boards from L.A.’s big man. My number sits at 13.9 rebounds from Davis.
Given those estimates, the Over 12.5 rebounds for Davis should be priced around -150. Some sportsbooks are dealing highs of Over 12.5 at -132, but you can find the same prop option paying -106 on Monday morning.
Lakers vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Anthony Davis Over 12.5 rebounds
Nuggets moneyline
Under 223
With L.A. forcing a slower pace, the Nuggets won’t get as many easy looks at the hoop. Davis will clean the glass, with some forecasts as high as 16 rebounds in Game 2.
Knocking off the Nuggets on their own floor is a tall task, even for LeBron James & Co. Denver has lost only eight games inside Ball Arena this season.
Even with defensive adjustments coming after Game 1, this Over/Under is a tall ask. I expect a slower, half-court matchup tonight. This total has been cut from 226.5 to 223 after the teams scored a collective 217 points in the series opener.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Nuggets odds
Get the latest Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 NBA playoff odds.
Lakers vs Nuggets live odds
Lakers vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +6.5 | Denver -6.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +225 | Denver -290
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Lakers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Following Denver’s 114-103 victory after closing as 6.5-point chalk in Game 1, oddsmakers opened the home side between -6.5 and -7.5. Early play swayed this spread to the high side, sitting at Nuggets -7.5 across the industry on Monday morning.
- The Over/Under for Game 1 closed at 226.5 points and the team played well below that number (217 collective points). The Game 2 total opened at 223.5 points and has slid to as low as 222.5 points on gameday.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 54% of picks are laying the points with Denver in Game 2. As for the Over/Under, 59% of picks are taking the Over in Monday’s matchup in Ball Arena.
- After the victory in Game 1, Denver has won nine consecutive meetings with L.A. and has covered the spread in seven of those matchups going back to January 2023.
Lakers vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have stayed Under the total in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.35 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.
Lakers vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 4-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Lakers vs Nuggets latest injuries
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