De’Aaron Fox’s uncertain future is hovering over the Sacramento Kings, and a trip to face Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder isn’t likely to lighten the mood.
However, with both teams clicking on all cylinders offensively, my Kings vs Thunder predictions anticipate no shortage of points in tonight's Western Conference clash.
Read on for my NBA picks for Saturday, February 1.
Kings vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Over 235 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Sacramento Kings went all-in on offense this season — with predictable results. They rank sixth in the NBA in points per game (116.6) but are giving up 114.6 points per game, which is easily in the bottom half of the league.
That profile tends to keep the Over in play, and it’s hit in six of the Kings’ last nine contests. I see a similar script tonight against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that also sits inside the Top 10 in ppg (116.4).
Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have one hand on the top seed in the West. They’ve scored 118 points or more in seven of their last 10 games, and the Over is 8-1-1 in that span.
Five of the past seven meetings between these teams have produced more than 235 points, including OKC’s 130-109 victory in Sacramento in November, and this feels like a value pick with SGA in red-hot form and the Kings boasting the three-pronged scoring of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan.
We’ve seen the visitors struggle against the league’s better offenses, and allowing 143 points to the New York Knicks last weekend was a perfect example. At the other end, the absence of Alex Caruso should be a boost for the Sacramento backcourt and allow Fox and DeRozan to score efficiently.
After an uncharacteristic off night for everyone except Gilgeous-Alexander last time out against the Golden State Warriors, look for the Thunder to come out with a scoring frenzy.
Kings vs Thunder same-game parlay
Over 235
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander Over 34.5 points
Malik Monk Over 5.5 assists
No one in the NBA makes scoring look as simple as Gilgeous-Alexander. Even when he’s not making highlight plays, he’s quietly cruising towards the 30-point mark. His consistency makes him the MVP frontrunner, and he finished with at least 30 points in 10 of his 13 games in January.
This Over targets another big Shai performance, especially with Jalen Williams out with a wrist injury, and it’s hard to see the Kings keeping him out of the paint. SGA averaged a whopping 35.6 ppg last month, including 52 points against the Warriors on Wednesday and 54 points against the Utah Jazz a week earlier.
I’m also taking the Over on Malik Monk’s assists tally. This continues to be one of my favorite props in the NBA, and a line of 5.5 hasn’t caught up to Monk’s playmaking role in a high-powered Sacramento offense.
He’s dished eight or more dimes in seven of his last nine contests. While Fox, Sabonis, and DeRozan get more of the spotlight, Monk could be the true X-factor for the Kings tonight.
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Kings vs Thunder odds
Kings vs Thunder live odds
Kings vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +9 (-110) | Oklahoma City -9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sacramento +375 | Oklahoma City -500
- Over/Under: Over 234 (-110) | Under 234 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
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There’s a lot to like about a Thunder team that’s 19-3 at home and 29-15-3 ATS this season.
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However, the hosts haven’t covered the spread in any of their last four outings, and Sacramento arrives with an 11-4 mark in its past 15 games.
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The Kings have hit the 4Q moneyline in 12 of their last 16 contests.
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The visitors are allowing the third-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year.
Kings vs Thunder trend
The Over is 14-5 in OKC’s last 19 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Thunder.
How to watch Kings vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSCA, FDSN |
Kings vs Thunder latest injuries
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