Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Trip Stuffs the Box Score

The Dallas Mavericks are in danger of falling down to the .500 mark against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night, and Luka Doncic won’t be there to save their bacon.

Doncic is out for this evening tilt at FedExForum with a left thigh injury. Kyrie Irving is also considered questionable for this one after missing Friday’s practice for undisclosed personal reasons, less than 48 hours after he went on a rant against NBA fans and the media on Twitch. 

Ja Morant will once again be missing for Memphis in the aftermath of his gun video scandal. The Grizzlies are 1-2 without him so far, picking up their first win over the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, 131-110.

Who will step up for these shorthanded squads on Saturday night? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Grizzlies on Saturday, March 11.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies best odds

Mavericks vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Filling the shoes of Ja Morant on the court is no small feat. In the three games without him so far, we’ve seen some inconsistent efforts from the likes of Grizzlies regular starters Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks. 

Tyus Jones has done a solid job replacing Morant’s production at point guard, authoring two double-doubles. But oddsmakers have quickly caught on, and there’s little value to be had in his NBA player props on Saturday night.

One player who’s been hard to critique since Morant took his leave is Jaren Jackson Jr., whose player props appear to be offering some value to optimistic bettors. 

Jackson Jr. is averaging 23.7 ppg over his last three contests, clearing his listed point total each time. He also topped his points + assists + rebounds line in each of those three tilts. 

Part of that success is due to his improved shooting from 3-point range. He’s knocked down seven of his last 15 attempts from beyond the arc. 

The Mavericks are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to stopping power forwards, as they’re allowing 23.9 ppg to the position this year. They also surrender 10.2 rpg, and 3.9 apg. 

Dallas hasn’t been great defensively this year, sitting 23rd in D-rating. They’ve been getting bled of late, coughing up 121.1 ppg over their last 10 games (2-8 SU). 

The Mavericks have also lost the rebound battle in seven of their last 10 overall, and that was with leading rebounder Doncic in the lineup. 

JJJ isn’t known for his passing game, but the best line on his points + assists + rebounds prop is only one point higher than the points + rebounds prop, and at better odds as of this writing. 

My best bet: Jackson Jr. Over 30.5 points + assists + rebounds (-104)

Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread analysis

The Grizzlies opened as consensus 5.5-point favorites overnight, and that’s the line the majority of sportsbooks are holding onto as of this writing, though some 5.0s and 6.0s are out there. 

The Mavericks will be trying to snap a seven-game losing streak when Doncic doesn’t suit up. They’ve lost those games by an average of 11.6 points. 

Dallas has dropped seven of its last 10 overall with Doncic at its disposal, seeing its grip on the all-important No. 6 seed in the Western Conference erode. If Irving decides to sit this one out — and the fact that oddsmakers haven’t posted a single player prop on any Maverick suggests that this is in the realm of possibility — then the point spread could climb even higher. 

Memphis lost its first two games without Morant on the road, where it’s 12-21 SU and 11-22 ATS this year. The Grizz thumped a playoff hopeful in the Warriors in their return home, where they’re an incredible 27-5 SU and 20-11-1 ATS this year. This is not a new thing for the Grizzlies either, as they’re 41-17-1 ATS in their last 59 home games dating back to last season.

If you like Memphis tonight, pounce on this spread right away, as it’s unlikely to get any smaller.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The total for this tilt opened at a low 223.5, and that figure has crept up half a point at some sites. 

The Mavericks are 37-29-1 to the Over this year, while the Grizzlies are 35-29-1 to the Under. The home/road trends are even more muddled, with Dallas sitting at 16-16, and Memphis at 16-15-1.

With a lack of star power, plus the Under-friendly Grizzlies being the home team, it’s not surprising to see such a low total. However, it might be a touch too low.

Neither the Mavs nor the Grizzlies have seen a total below 224 in their last 10 overall. It might be best to stay away from the total, at least until Irving’s status is solidified. There’s a chance Memphis turns this one into a laugher, and the scoring dries up in the fourth quarter. 

Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

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