The Dallas Mavericks have won four of their last five, including two without Luka Doncic, and the team will look to bounce back from a tough loss on Sunday with a trip to face the Atlanta Hawks.
My Mavericks vs. Hawks predictions examine a lofty point total that’s attainable as two strong offenses clash in Atlanta. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over tonight.
Mavericks vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Over 237.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This Dallas Mavericks defense has been solid this season, allowing the ninth-fewest points per game overall.
Home-road splits are particularly notable when breaking down the Mavs’ efforts on that side of the ball. Dallas has allowed just 103.9 points per game at home, which is the fourth-fewest. On the road, the Mavs have given up 118.4 points, good for seventh-most. Across their last three, the Mavs have surrendered the 12th-most points.
Meanwhile, this Atlanta Hawks defense has been far from elite, surrendering the third-most points to opponents at 120.5. Both teams have been great at scoring the basketball, as Dallas is ranked ninth at 116.2 points per game, and Atlanta is 10th at 115.4.
Dallas will be without Luka Doncic tonight, but that doesn’t impact the pick. The Mavs have averaged 120 points per game over their last three with Doncic on the sideline.
Season trends make this pick a slam dunk. The Hawks are 6-2 to the Over at home this season, including 4-1 as the home favorite. Dallas is 6-2 to the Over as the road team, including 6-0 as the road dog. I expect Dallas’ offense to get it done against Atlanta, with the Mavs’ long-range shooters taking advantage of a particularly weak perimeter defense.
Mavericks vs Hawks same-game parlay
Over 237.5
Trae Young double-double
Klay Thompson Over 3.5 threes
Trae Young leads the league in assists and is averaging 22.1 points and 11.7 dimes through 15 games. He's logged a double-double in 11 of 15 games, and he’s done so in two straight heading into Monday’s matchup with Dallas.
Dating back to 2021-22, Young averaged 21.6 points and 12 assists across five matchups with the Mavericks and posted a double-double in each of them. I’m taking the Over on a 237.5-point total, so I expect plenty of scoring. That means plenty of assists for Young, who should easily cash this prop.
Klay Thompson has taken a step back as a 3-point shooter, knocking down 2.9 per contest after averaging 3.5 per game across the last eight seasons. He’s drilled 4+ triples in seven of 17 games this season, but the Hawks have been quite susceptible to opposing shooters.
The Hawks have allowed the third-highest 3-point percentage to opponents, and I expect Klay to take full advantage, especially with Doncic out of action. Over his last five matchups with Atlanta, Thompson averaged 5.6 triples and cashed the Over three times.
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Mavericks vs Hawks odds
Mavericks vs Hawks live odds
Mavericks vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +3.5 | Atlanta -3.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +125 | Atlanta -150
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas won four in a row before falling to the Heat in overtime on Sunday. The team is 4-1 ATS across its last five.
- Atlanta won and covered in just one of four games on its latest road trip, falling to 7-10 straight up and 6-11 ATS on the season.
- This Mavericks defense has been strong this season, and the team’s Over/Under record is 8-8-1.
- Atlanta’s defense has allowed plenty of points, allowing the Over to cash in 12 of 17 games thus far.
Mavericks vs Hawks trend
These teams have traded sweeps over the last two seasons. Dallas won and covered both head-to-head matchups last season while Atlanta won both and went 1-1 ATS two years ago. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Hawks.
How to watch Mavericks vs Hawks
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 11-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KFAA, FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast - Atlanta |
Mavericks vs Hawks latest injuries
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