It's desperation mode for Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves as they attempt to even the series at one game apiece against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks tonight, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find our best bet for this matchup.
It's the Western Conference Finals, and both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks are loaded with superstar talent. That being said, let's give a massive shoutout to Derrick Jones Jr., who I think has been one of the best role players in these NBA playoffs. I'm excited to highlight him in this article.
Find out why my NBA picks are backing Over 8.5 points for Jones in my Mavericks vs. Timberwolves predictions for Friday, May 24.
Mavs vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Derrick Jones Jr. Over 8.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
In Game 1, I bet on Derrick Jones Jr. to go Over the total of 8.5 points at -118, and we didn't get a green checkmark as he finished the game with 8 points. When it comes to sports betting, you can't live in fear. I saw nothing in the film that changed my mind about this prop; if anything, I'm even more confident in this number. That's why I'm running it back with an Over on Jones' points prop, priced at 8.5 (-108).
If you go back and watch the broadcast of Game 1, you'll repeatedly hear Stan Van Gundy pleading for the Minnesota Timberwolves to stop guarding Luka Doncic with drop coverage and send more blitzes. They sent the blitz a couple of times in Game 1, but in Game 2, I fully expect to see it much more. If the Timberwolves do change their coverage and send more blitzes, it will create ripple effects throughout the player prop market, and this is one bet that I think will benefit from this switch.
I played the Over 8.5 points for Jones in Game 1 because he can play above the rim and finish tough athletic shots around the rim, working off of Doncic and Kyrie Irving creating for him. The Dallas Mavericks will need that offense against this Timberwolves rim protection. Jones had eight points with some nice finishes at the rim and a couple of dunks. Where the bet fell flat was his failure to make a single three-pointer, and that's where the blitz versus the drop coverage will really help Jones.
If the Timberwolves blitz Doncic, it will force an immediate pass to Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively or a swing pass to another guard. What the blitz opens the Timberwolves' defense up to is a lot of three-pointers from the Mavericks' role players, including Jones. If Jones starts taking corner three-pointers, which he has shot very well in these playoffs, this total of 8.5 begins to look very low.
Attacking Jones' points prop with this angle also comes with a level of guarantee to his minutes. Jones has an extremely important role in this series as he is the Mavericks' best perimeter defender and is the primary defender on Anthony Edwards. This should keep his minutes very secure and potentially even elevated.
Jones is projected to score 10 points on Friday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Over 8.5 points at -145, but it is available at DraftKings at -108.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Derrick Jones Jr. Over 8.5 points
Daniel Gafford Over 0.5 assists
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 3.5 points
The best price for the Over 8.5 points on Jones as a straight bet is at DraftKings, but I'm going to make the SGP at bet365 because I want to include the Over 0.5 assists for Daniel Gafford and Over 3.5 points for Tim Hardaway Jr. All three of these props are trading at numbers I favor, and all three stand to gain an even bigger edge if the Timberwolves switch their coverages to more blitzes against Doncic.
While Gafford Over 0.5 assists and Tim Hardaway Over 3.5 points might appear as additional legs for our SGP, I actually placed straight bets on these as well. You can read a full breakdown of why I like these bets in our best NBA player props for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves on May 24.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds
Mavericks vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Mavericks vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game 2.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +5 | Minnesota -5
- Moneyline: Dallas +175 | Minnesota -196
- Over/Under: Over 207 | Under 207
Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Timberwolves opened as a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel and are now trading as a 5.5-point favorite.
- The support for the Timberwolves in the market isn't all that surprising, as everyone is expecting a certain level of desperation following their loss in Game 1 at home.
- The total opened at 208.5 at FanDuel and has dropped one point to 207.5.
- It did touch as low as 207 at FanDuel but was then bet back up to 207.5, which is a consensus number in the market.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves trend
The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.60 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 5-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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