Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prop Picks and Best Bets: Minny Will Keep Rock Moving

Prop bet #1: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists

The Over on Karl-Anthony Towns' assists prop has seen quite a bit of movement since we last talked about it. Even with the juice moving from +114 to -109, you still have an edge with this number trading at 2.5 compared to the 3.5 we saw at the beginning of the series. Not only do I think we have an edge at 2.5 (-109), but several moving pieces on the basketball front should provide a boost for Towns.

The two-man game between Towns and Rudy Gobert has yielded high-value potential assists all series long for KAT, but the Minnesota Timberwolves haven't run this action as much as they should. Will they use it more in Game 5? To be determined, but every time they do, it's a path to an easy assist for Towns and a way to attack the rim protection of the Dallas Mavericks.

The moving pieces I was referring to include the fact that Dereck Lively is injured and Maxi Kleber is back in the lineup. Though Lively is tagged as questionable, I don't believe he playing, meaning the Mavs will go through spurts where Daniel Gafford is on the bench and Kleber is playing the five.

Towns has shown he can get downhill and put pressure on the rim, but Kleber isn't a rim protector like Gafford or Lively, and his defense on Towns is to take a charge. Kleber accomplished this in Game 4, and they're silly fouls because the lob to the dunker's spot is wide open on these drives. Minnesota's coaching staff should put that on film for Towns, and we could see him make a couple of extra passes on his drives.

Another angle I like with Towns' assists prop is that his three-point shooting finally got back on track in Game 4, which means we could see the Mavericks' defense a little more focused on taking away this shot. Better closeouts could lead to a swing pass from Towns to another shooter, and with the game being played at Target Center, potential assists for 3-pointers could convert at a higher rate.

He's projected to have 3.2 assists on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -152.

Karl-Anthony Towns prop: Over 2.5 assists (-109 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points

We've placed several of these Under bets throughout the NBA playoffs on superstar players. These bets might be no fun to root for, but with this total jumping up from 26.5/27.5 to 28.5, I think we have an edge on the Under. We're not saying Anthony Edwards will have a bad game — 28 points would still be a big number for him — but we believe he'll go Under the number his prop is trading at.

When you watched Game 4, you saw an extremely aggressive, high-energy Edwards who was motivated to win or lose the game based on his scoring. His usage was extremely high at 41.7% compared to the 29.5% he's averaging in the playoffs. Edwards was on the ball and making everything happen for the offense.

What grabbed my attention was that while watching the game, you’d assume he blitzed his points total. In reality, if he hadn't made his pull-up jumper with 40 seconds left, he would have fallen Under the total of 27.5 points. This Under bet isn't a knock on Edwards by any means. I just think his aggressiveness and the Mavericks loading up to stop his drives open up the floor for his teammates, especially with Lively potentially out.

You saw Mike Conley able to get in the lane and finish at the rim, Gobert was able to finish around the rim, and Towns was also able to get downhill. With this game moving back to Target Center, you could see more contributions from others. Edwards will be creating space for them to attack the weakened rim protection of the Mavericks. If Edwards can keep all eyes on him, his teammates have an offensive advantage that they can exploit.

With this number being bumped up to 28.5 points following Edwards' 29-point performance in Game 4, and the fact I think his teammates have advantages they can exploit, I love the Under at this number. Edwards is projected to score 27.1 points on Thursday, which allows us to price the Under 28.5 at -145.

Anthony Edwards prop: Under 28.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 assists

I bet this Over for Jaden McDaniels in Game 4 when it was trading at +140, and he finished the game with zero assists and zero potential assists. Not ideal, but with the juice moving from +140 to +160 following that, you better believe I'm hitting the button once again.

McDaniels may have finished the game with zero potential assists, but when you watch the film, there were plenty of opportunities for him to not only collect potential assists but also high-value ones. There were also instances where he took a couple of dribbles into the lane but stopped to shoot the mid-range jumper rather than swinging it. For me, the zero potential assists don't paint the whole picture of what was possible.

Also, I need Stan Van Gundy to scream it even louder on the broadcast because I simply refuse to believe the Timberwolves will just continue to allow Luka Doncic to stand around and play zero defense. Luka's the primary defender on McDaniels, and they have to get him involved in some actions to waste Luka's energy on the defensive end.

I feel very comfortable attacking this Over because his minutes are extremely secure due to his role on the defensive end. He locked up Kyrie Irving in Game 4 and there's no reason we shouldn't see elevated minutes for him once again. He's projected to drop 1.8 dimes tonight, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -108.

Jaden McDaniels prop: Over 1.5 assists (+160 at bet365)