Nets vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Claxton Holds His Own Against Jokic

The Denver Nuggets remain on track to lock up the No. 1 seed in the West, but back-to-back shock losses this week have raised eyebrows as they prepare to face the Brooklyn Nets this afternoon.

It feels harsh to scrutinize a team that’s 46-20 this season, but the Nuggets collapsed defensively in the second half on Wednesday against the Chicago Bulls, then wasted Nikola Jokic’s 37-point triple-double in Friday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs.

The Nets have enjoyed a better week, capped off by a 124-123 overtime victory on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Mikal Bridges stayed hot with a 34-point performance.

Get the lowdown on today’s battle with our free NBA picks and predictions for Nets vs Nuggets on Sunday, March 12.

Nets vs Nuggets best odds

Nets vs Nuggets picks and predictions

After all the changes in Brooklyn this season, 23-year-old Nic Claxton is suddenly one of the last remaining connections to a Nets team that offered so much but ultimately fizzled out in the most dramatic way possible.

In a wild month, Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie and Cam Johnson have arrived to absorb the offensive touches that Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving vacated, but Claxton continues to be an important defensive anchor. Head coach Jacque Vaughn doesn’t have a lot of other options at center. Claxton should see a heavy minutes load this afternoon to combat the threat of Nikola Jokic, with the visitors less likely to go small for long stretches.

That bring us to this intriguing rebounding prop that aligns with Claxton’s key role in the Brooklyn defense. He’s had three games with double-digit rebounds (13, 12, 12) since the calendar flipped to March. 

While there’s a risk of foul trouble against Jokic, and some possessions where he’ll be busy boxing out, one look at this Nets roster confirms there are few other candidates to post big rebounding numbers.

It helps too that Claxton is averaging more than two offensive rebounds a game. He had four boards on that end of the floor against the Timberwolves, and he’ll have a quickness edge over Jokic.

There’s also a chance that Brooklyn will take a page out of the playbook that the Toronto Raptors – among others – have used against the Nuggets, with a big wing guarding Jokic and a center nearby to bring help. That tactical wrinkle would keep Claxton closer to the rim defensively, and in prime position on the boards.

In what should be a fast-paced, offense-first matchup, I’m taking the Over on Claxton’s rebounds.

My best bet: Claxton Over 9.5 rebounds (+115 at DraftKings)

Nets vs Nuggets spread analysis

Despite the slip-ups against the Bulls and Spurs this week, Denver is an 8.5-point favorite here – a number that speaks to the Nuggets’ impressive 30-5 record at Ball Arena this season, as well as the Nets’ grueling overtime battle on Friday night.

Jokic stands out as the obvious difference-maker for a Denver team that’s covered the spread in each of their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. The two-time MVP is piling up triple-doubles with ease, while Michael Porter Jr. should be fresh after getting ejected early in San Antonio.

If you’re laying the points with the hosts, the Nets’ perimeter defense is probably one of the areas that makes you nervous. Bridges and Dorian-Finney Smith are so smart and so long, and there will be nothing easy for Jamal Murray on his drives.

This overhauled Brooklyn roster is still gelling, but Vaughn’s team served up a balanced scoring effort last time out. Bridges led the way with 34 points, Dinwiddie added 29 points, and five other Nets scored in the double-digits.

Nets vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The recent numbers for these teams are all over the map when it comes to the total. The Nets have skewed towards lower scoring contests, as the Under has hit in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and in their last five outings after an SU win.

But this free-flowing Denver offense is an Over machine any time the supporting cast is firing next to Jokic. The Over is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six games after a loss, and 3-0-1 in their past four showdowns with teams that boast a winning SU record.

Both teams cracked the 120-point mark in Friday action, and there were some red flags for Denver after giving up 128 points to the Spurs. With that in mind, I’m looking for a fast-paced battle. I’m leaning more towards the Over, especially after seeing the visitors dominate a Rudy Gobert-led defense on Friday night.

Nets vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an SU loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Nuggets.

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