The Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings meet Wednesday night at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento for the second time in as many nights.
The Nuggets picked up a 113-106 victory in the front end of the back-to-back yesterday, as Michael Porter Jr. led the way with 30 points while Jamal Murray chipped in with 25 points and Nikola Jokic dropped 20 points (and fell one rebound shy of another triple-double).
For the Kings, they shot a decent 49% from the field, with five scorers in double digits, but failed to even cover the spread as 3.5-point home dogs.
Tonight, the NBA odds have Sacramento laying just 2.5 points on its home court — can the Kings salvage a split, or will the Nuggets complete the two-game sweep (both SU and ATS)?
I'll discuss that in my free NBA betting picks for Nuggets vs. Kings on Wednesday, December 28.
Nuggets vs Kings best odds
Nuggets vs Kings picks and predictions
The Denver Nuggets have now picked up five consecutive wins while winning eight of their past nine games overall.
The loss last night, in which the Sacramento Kings held a 20-point lead midway through the second quarter, means that they have gone 1-3 (both straight up and against the spread) in their last four games.
It's a tough defeat to swallow, but it was impressive that Sacramento was able to get out to a fast start in the first two periods, considering it was without head coach Mike Brown (health and safety protocols) and star center Domantas Sabonis (thumb injury).
However, reality set in for the final 30ish minutes, and with Brown out and Sabonis — the team's second-leading scorer, leading rebounder, and best shot at slowing down two-time MVP Nikola Jokic — questionable as he will be re-evaluated today, there is little reason not to trust the Nuggets again.
After outscoring the Kings 66-50 in the second half last night (with Jokic scoring 18 of his 20 points), I'm looking at Denver to continue that dominance over shorthanded Sacramento and win this one by at least three points — the Nuggets are just the better (and healthier) team and this is a gift that the line isn’t much larger.
My best bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
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Nuggets vs Kings spread analysis
Denver is just 3-4 ATS in its previous seven road games, but this spread is simply just too short considering the Nuggets have won eight of 9, and after outscoring this same Kings team by 16 in the second half and winning by seven (in Sacramento) last night... the spread is even less for tonight's game, sitting at 2.5 points as opposed to last night's closing line of 3.5.
It doesn't really make sense, especially with Sabonis again questionable to play tonight.
Plus, the Kings are also just 1-5 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, and 0-5 ATS in the previous five outings against teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
Nuggets vs Kings Over/Under analysis
Including yesterday's result, the Under is 5-1 in the Nuggets' last six games.
However, the Over has connected in six of the past nine head-to-head meetings with the Kings, while the Over is 9-3-1 in Sacramento's last 13 home games.
Denver is sixth in the NBA with 116 points per game, checking in second in both field-goal percentage (50.5%) and 3-point percentage (38.8%). If there is one way the Nuggets can frustrate Over bettors, it’s at the charity stripe, as this team shoots just 73.6% on free throws, third-worst in The Association.
Defensively, the Nugs allow 114.1 ppg, but it allows opponents to shoot at a 48.5% clip from the field (27th in the NBA), with also foes to shoot 36.4% from behind the arc.
The Kings are also a fun offense, sitting second in the league at 118.1 ppg, but the loss of Sabonis — who also leads the team in assists — is massive: Last night was his first game out of the lineup this season, and the Kings took a big hit in pace, assist rate, rebounding rate and overall net rating.
Defense isn’t exactly a hallmark of the Kings, checking in No. 24 or lower in points allowed (116.2), field-goal percentage (48.5%), and 3-pointer percentage (36.7%), and we saw that rear its ugly head as the Nuggets offense woke up in the second half last night.
Nuggets vs Kings betting trend to know
The Over is 6-3 in the past nine meetings between the Nuggets and Kings. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Kings.
Nuggets vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 28, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
