Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Not-So-Great Balls of Fire

The Phoenix Suns are backed into a corner, and are now without their floor general for the immediate future. The Suns’ main problem, though, is that the immediate future could quickly become the next five months if they do not take care of business at home against the Denver Nuggets. Can Phoenix rally without Chris Paul?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs Suns on May 5.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 best odds

Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 picks and predictions

Part of the logic to trading for Kevin Durant was to provide further star power should a postseason injury once again slow Paul, and sure enough, that became reality Monday when a tweaked groin sent Paul to the locker room. The flip side of that is that the Suns simply lack quality players now with Paul sidelined tonight.

Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and even Jae Crowder would have helped provide depth that Durant alone cannot replace in these circumstances. Will Durant score? Almost assuredly. Will he play 40-plus minutes? Phoenix is going to need monumental efforts from both him and Devin Booker. But can Durant or Booker do all that while defending on-ball as Paul would? Now this gets a bit tricky.

The Nuggets are deep. Every time the world is collectively shocked that Jeff Green is still contributing to a playoff rotation at the age of 36, we overlook the fact that he is usually called upon for fewer than 20 minutes per game and he knows his role: Rebound, defend, move the ball. Fourteen-year veterans can play 18 minutes per game in the playoffs when they are able to focus like that. On an eight-man rotation, Green is Denver’s seventh offensive option. The six above him have all averaged double-digits through seven games in these playoffs.

The Suns are not deep, especially without Paul. They should have a six or seven-man rotation tonight, with the sixth being Bismack Biyombo (10.1 minutes per game in seven games these playoffs) and the seventh either Damion Lee (12.2 in six games) or Landry Shamet (11.5 in six games). Of the core five, Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie are both playing more than 20 minutes per game while scoring fewer than 10 points per game. Okogie’s role is certainly not offensive, but he is still scoring just 4.9 points in 20.1 minutes per playoff game.

Phoenix does not have enough quality depth to replace Paul’s playmaking and bucket-getting. Only three available players are consistently scoring for the Suns.

That showed in Game 2’s fourth quarter. Paul was in the locker room. It began with the Suns leading 73-70. On 19 fourth-quarter possessions, Phoenix scored just 14 points, while Denver poured in 27 points on 18 possessions.

Focusing on that disparity runs the risk of putting too much value into a small sample size, but the Nuggets do not need to dominate that aggressively again. They simply need to outpace the Paul-less Suns by one point throughout an entire game. A team that already thrives in transition should excel against a team that may play only seven players, and two of them will be Deandre Ayton and Biyombo — not exactly defenders who will get back down the court with expediency.

Durant and Booker are two of the best scorers in the game, but they cannot play all five positions, and the Nuggets will make the Suns pay for that tonight.

My best bet: Nuggets moneyline (+155 at BetMGM)

Nuggets vs Suns same-game parlay

Nuggets +4

Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 assists

Michael Porter Jr. Over 14.5 points

+372 at FanDuel

Let’s call this the Transition Trio same-game parlay.

Denver has found itself in its transition offense on 17.3% of its postseason possessions, per nba.com, scoring 1.13 points per possession. The Suns and the Heat have higher points per possession (1.44 for Phoenix), but they fire down the court less often. The Nuggets relish it.

And, frankly, that percentage of possessions would likely be higher if the Minnesota Timberwolves had not been so outmatched in two of the five games in that first-round series.

When Denver takes off down the court, it is often Nikola Jokic making an outlet pass or grabbing a rebound and immediately starting down the court. Not all of those moments end in or are credited as an assist for Jokic, but if just one or two of them do, that should propel him Over his prop.

As maybe the most athletic player on the Nuggets’ roster, Michael Porter Jr. benefits plenty from those transition points. Again, not every transition bucket needs to end up with Porter, but if Denver dials up the pace to take advantage of Phoenix’s shortened bench, just one or two of those additional races landing in Porter’s hands should send him Over his points prop.

He has scored more than 14.5 points in four of seven postseason games this year, and before that he had cleared it in 10 of his last 12 regular season games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

Without Paul, Phoenix was just 12-11 straight-up this season, compared to 33-26 with him. The failure comes defensively, with the Suns’ defensive rating jumping to 115.7 without him from 113.2 with him, per statmuse.com.

To put those numbers into context, Phoenix with Paul would have ranked No. 11 in the league across the season, but without him, the Suns would have finished No. 22 in defensive rating.

Again, depth is a concern. Without Paul’s tenacious defense, Phoenix must turn to Booker for more on-ball work, and to Shamet and Lee for more overall action. Those are not winning tactics in the postseason, and they help explain why this line fell from opening at -5.5 in the Suns’ favor on Tuesday morning to -4 on Thursday, with nearly two days spent at -3.5 in the interim.

Even that seems high, given the Nuggets were four-point favorites at home in Game 2. Swing the spread five or six points based on playing in Phoenix rather than Denver, and this should be about -2 toward the Suns. The added bucket speaks to the 0-2 hole Phoenix is in, factoring in the abstracts of desperation vs. complacency, but betting on such intangibles is a questionable approach.

The Game 2 slog that ended with 184 total points somewhat impacted the pregame total, sitting at 224.5 on Friday afternoon, down from 229 before Game 2 and 227.5 before Game 1. Without Paul, the total dropping that far is a further surprise. Just as no team is as good or as bad as its last game, this feels like an overreaction to the low-scoring Monday night, and may have created an Over opportunity tonight.

Nuggets vs Suns betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on at least three days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs Suns.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 game info

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