Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gordon Punishes Thin Suns Frontcourt

Home court has held up in the Western Conference semifinal series between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns.

The host team is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, with Denver earning a 118-102 win as 6.5-point chalk inside Ball Arena on Tuesday to take a 3-2 series lead.

That sends these teams back to Footprint Center in Phoenix, with NBA playoff odds setting the Suns as one-possession favorites at home in Game 6 tonight.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this desert showdown and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets at Suns on May 11.

(Editor's Note: This preview has been revised following Thursday afternoon's announcement that Deandre Ayton — the original target of our best bet — is out for Game 6.)

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 best odds

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 picks and predictions

Deandre Ayton’s rotten ribs blew up our original best bet and sent the betting markets for Game 6 into turmoil. It also has the Covers’ “powers that be” asking me for a new “best bet” for Nuggets at Suns tonight.

No Ayton means the Suns are running dangerously thin around the rim and projections for Denver forward Aaron Gordon are starting to correct course and show solid value against his points prop for Game 6. 

Oddsmakers have Gordon’s point total as low as 13.5 (Over -134) while many books have bumped this number to 14.5 (Over -120). However, there are still some markets slower to correct and you can find the Over 14.5 at EVEN money as of late Thursday afternoon.

Gordon’s modeling has a floor of 14.3 but a ceiling of 18.7 points. My number is two points lower and sits north of 16 points, which is more than enough to get past the lower and higher end of his scoring total.

Anchoring Gordon’s prop are three quieter showings, with the 6-foot-8 forward posting outputs of 10, 11, and nine points in the last three games, shooting a collective 12-for-36 in that span. Gordon did, however, open the series with 23 and 16 points in the first two games (14-for-21), and I like him to hit at least 15 points on the scoreboard tonight.

My best bet: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points (+104)

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 same-game parlay

Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 points (-110)

Kevin Durant Over 5.5 assists (-130)

Aaron Gordon 2+ assists (-180)

+400 at DraftKings

Ayton’s questionable status could be keeping his point total in check, but he says he’s fine and his projections call for as many as 17 points. Kevin Durant will draw a ton of attention and all of his mainstream modeling calls for at least six dimes for the fourth straight game. Denver forward Aaron Gordon has a total of nine helpers in the past two games and is projected to have three or more tonight. Since his O/U on assists isn’t an option in the SGP parlay menu, we’ll settle for two or more. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 spread and Over/Under analysis

Following the Game 5 loss in Denver, the Suns hit the board as 3.5-point home favorites for Thursday’s Game 6, and early money played into the home team trend, pushing this spread to as high as -4.

However, with Suns veteran guard Chris Paul still out of action with a groin injury and starting center Deandre Ayton showing up on the injury report with tender ribs, this spread has slimmed to as low as Phoenix -3 across the industry on Thursday morning.

According to BetMGM books, 63% of ticket count and 80% of the money is riding on the Nuggets as short road underdogs tonight.

The Suns need home court to keep Devin Booker and Kevin Durant powered up, with the pair providing the bulk of the offensive punch for Phoenix in this series. They combined for 54 of the Suns’ total 102 points in Game 5 and outside of 14 points from Ayton, no other Phoenix player scored in double figures.

Denver, however, had five guys score 10+ points Tuesday, including 25 points from reserve Bruce Brown. The Nuggets stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray totaled 48 points while Michael Porter Jr. showed up with 19 points, continuing his up-and-down contributions.

Denver’s depth is compounded by Paul’s injury as well as Ayton’s aches and Booker playing through a sore foot. He was visibly slowed by a foot injury sustained in the first quarter of Game 5, as Suns blog Bright Side of the Sun points out, shooting 4 of 5 for 12 points before getting hurt and going just 4-for-15 for 16 points in the 29 minutes played after the injury.

As for the Game 6 Over/Under total, it opened at 226.5 points and has slowly been trimmed to as low as 225.5 at some sharper markets as of Thursday morning.

This current total is in line with the lower numbers seen in the previous two games in Phoenix, which closed with O/U’s of 225 and 226 but both games blew through those totals: 129-124 and 121-114 final scores.

Denver wasn’t thrown off by the hostile crowd in Phoenix at all, shooting 50% from the field in those two games but couldn’t slow down the Suns combo of Durant and Booker. The Suns shot 53.4% in those two home stands vs. just 44.6% shooting in those three games in Ball Arena.

The offensive tempo of those two contests in the Footprint Center was also played at a quicker pace, with a rating of 98.25 vs. a slight downshift to 96.67 in those three outings in Denver.

According to BetMGM books, which are hanging 226.5 points, 55% of bets are on the Over but the handle is balanced with a 50/50 split on the total.

Nuggets vs Suns betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0-1 in the Nuggets’ last six road games while the Over has gone 6-0-1 in the Suns' previous seven home stands. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Suns.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 game info

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 key injuries

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