The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a thrilling 132-130 victory at Memphis and host a rested Milwaukee Bucks squad at State Farm Arena tonight.
Atlanta's Trae Young has been hobbled with Achilles tendonitis, and my Bucks vs. Hawks predictions anticipate another tough shooting night for the All-Star guard.
Read on as I share my NBA picks for this 7:30 p.m. ET tip on Tuesday, March 4.
Bucks vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Trae Young Under 2.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a Monday night upset win over the Memphis Grizzlies, and All-Star guard Trae Young attempted only two shots from downtown.
Young has done Yeoman's work for the Hawks. Although his Achilles tendonitis has clearly affected him, he's suited up and played 35+ minutes in each of his last five games.
He’ll likely dress tonight, but his shot from beyond the arc isn’t falling. He’s made three of his last 20 from long-range, and I don’t expect an influx of success tonight for several reasons.
The main reason is Young’s Achilles. It’s compromised his lift on the jumper — he typically attempts nine threes per game, but he’s attempting half as many and making only 15% of them.
The other problem is the Milwaukee Bucks defense. They’ve been stingy from beyond the arc, surrendering only 30% of opponents' 36 long-range attempts across the last five and 35% this season away from Fiserv.
I will take a chance on this plus-money market and bet that Young doesn’t drain three triples. He’s hobbled, and he’s seen a decline in attempts across the last four.
The Bucks' perimeter defense is tough, and Young hasn’t made 3+ in four of his last six. I’m betting this trend continues tonight.
Bucks vs Hawks same-game parlay
Trae Young Under 2.5 threes
Trae Young Under 11.5 assists
Bucks moneyline
Since his initial injury was reported, Young has played 35+ minutes, but I suspect if this game gets out of hand early — and it could — Young will likely not play nearly as many minutes.
The Bucks defense allows the 10th-fewest dimes per game on the road and are inside the Top 10 in field-goal percentage allowed (46%) and 3-point percentage (35%) as the visiting team.
Milwaukee has won seven of 10 and three of five on the road. On three days' rest, they are 8-5 SU and should beat Atlanta SU tonight.
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Who will win Bucks vs Hawks?
Bucks 121, Hawks 115
Atlanta defeated Milwaukee 115-110 on February 7, 2025. The Bucks are playing terrific basketball and should beat a Hawks squad playing on zero nights' rest.
Bucks vs Hawks odds
Bucks vs Hawks live odds
Bucks vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -5 (-105) | Atlanta +5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -185 | Atlanta +155
- Over/Under: Over 244.5 (-110) | Under 244.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- As the away team, Milwaukee is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 and 11-18-0 ATS.
- Atlanta is 6-4-0 ATS over the previous 10 and 12-16-0 ATS at home.
- The Over/Under record in the last 10 H2H is 4-6-0 to the Under.
Bucks vs Hawks trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the moneyline in 7 of their last nine games (+7.95 Units / 71% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks.
How to watch Bucks vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast - Atlanta, FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin |
Bucks vs Hawks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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