Nuggets vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Offensive Magic Gets Minimized

It’s been a draining season on many levels for the Golden State Warriors, but they’ve turned a corner this month with a 9-2 record heading into tonight, where their revival will be tested as the Denver Nuggets come to town.

Not so long ago, there were questions over whether Golden State could climb into the play-in spots, but Steph Curry & Co. have loftier targets now and they’ve won three in a row, including an ugly 97-84 victory over the Hornets on Friday.

The Nuggets’ so-so recent form feels like déjà vu after a similar iffy patch last season. Easy wins over the Wizards and Trail Blazers this week have quietened the concerns, with Michael Porter Jr. leading the way with 34 points against the Blazers.

Let's take a closer look at the NBA odds for tonight’s Western Conference battle with our free NBA picks for Nuggets vs Warriors on Sunday, February 25.

Nuggets vs Warriors odds

Nuggets vs Warriors predictions

With Nikola Jokic and Steph Curry sharing the court, the Under probably isn’t the first bet that springs to mind, but there’s a strong case to be made for defense grabbing the headlines here.

For a start, the star power in this matchup means the Over/Under is already as high as 230.5. That’s a nod to how quickly Curry and Klay Thompson can heat up, as well as what a Jokic-centric offense can do in top gear.

But the trends tell a different story amid ongoing tinkering with lineups and rotations. The Under is 7-3 in Golden State’s last 10 contests and it’s been a winning ticket in three of the past four meetings between these teams.

For all the otherworldly highlight plays that Jokic serves up, the Denver Nuggets have veered towards the Under this season. It’s 35-21-1 thus far, and the visitors have somehow only hit the Over in 32 of their last 90 games.

Denver is also sweating on Jamal Murray’s availability after he sat out against Portland with a shin injury as well as Kentavius Caldwell-Pope’s sprained finger.

This is the type of big stage to snap the Nuggets back into playoff mode — similar to their heavyweight clash with the Celtics last month that ended in a 102-100 win. I expect that level of intensity here, and the Golden State Warriors are equipped to match it defensively, led by Draymond Green and the athleticism of Jonathan Kuminga.

Get ready for plenty of magic moments tonight, but I’m still wagering on the Under.

My best bet: Under 230.5 (-110 at bet365)

Nuggets vs Warriors same-game parlay

Under 230.5

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists

Draymond Green Over 6.5 rebounds

+700 at bet365

It’s been a turbulent season for Green, but there’s no arguing with his defensive impact. He’s taken over as the Warriors’ starting center and is well-versed in guarding Jokic, perhaps pushing the Joker into playmaking mode early.

The assist prop is my favorite choice for Jokic tonight. He’s been on a mission in the two games since the All-Star break, with 15 dimes against Washington and 14 more in Portland. 

I’m predicting another double-digit assist tally here, especially if Murray isn’t there for his usual share of the ball-handling duties.

Circling back to Green, this has the makings of a monster Draymond game. He’s going to play big minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble, and I expect him to make his presence felt on the glass.

He scooped up 13 rebounds against the Hornets on Friday and he’s averaging 8.5 boards so far in February. The Over on a generous line of 6.5 rebounds for Green is too hard for me to pass up in this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite excellent home form, the Nuggets haven’t been the same juggernaut on the road (16-14) and they’re road underdogs in the Bay Area tonight.

The 2.5-point line might be higher but for the Warriors’ patchy home record, also 16-14, and Denver’s comfort level in this matchup. The Nuggets have won the past six meetings between these teams, including all three showdowns this season.

The most recent meeting came in early January, with Denver needing a Jokic 40-foot buzzer-beater to sneak away with a 130-127 victory, but the hosts have a steelier look these days, and a new deal for head coach Steve Kerr this week was another boost for Golden State.

I’ve already jumped on the Under, but we should still get a show as Jokic’s playmaking meets Curry’s shotmaking. It just feels like a stretch to see the total getting north of 230.

I’m not rushing to take much reassurance from the Nuggets’ wins over two of the league’s worst teams this week either. They were held under 100 points in their last two games before the All-Star break and Michael Malone still has some questions to answer with his bench.

Nuggets vs Warriors betting trend to know

Don’t sleep on this version of a proud Golden State franchise. The Warriors have covered the first-half spread in 11 of their last 12 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.

Nuggets vs Warriors game info

Nuggets vs Warriors latest injuries

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