Pelicans vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Barrett Underwhelms Again

The New York Knicks are entering tonight's game against the New Orleans Pelicans hoping to win on back-to-back nights to avoid the play-in tournament in the final stretch of the season.

Tonight, it’s important for the Knicks to get Jalen Brunson back in a groove if they expect to win, while the Pelicans will need a big night from Brandon Ingram if they want to leave New York with a victory.

Find out your best options with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Knicks vs. Pelicans on Saturday, February 25. 

Pelicans vs Knicks best odds

Pelicans vs Knicks picks and predictions

Entering Tom Thibodeau's doghouse can be a scary proposition for any basketball player. This season, there have already been several casualties of the stern coach's temper and decision to cut minutes and players out of the rotation. Evan Fournier is still the best pure shooter on the Knicks roster, yet he can't even sniff the rotation. Even Thibodeau's once-prized MVP, Derrick Rose, has been relegated to a bench role, receiving a ton of DNP's in the process. It may be hard to stomach for some Knicks fans, but RJ Barrett appears to be slowly but surely heading in that direction.

Barrett had a relatively nice game last night. He shot the ball well (14 points on 50% shooting), was noticeably more energetic on defense, and didn't attempt a ton of 3-point shots, which aren't his strong suit. It was the kind of solid, while not spectacular, production they need from him. And yet, he was benched to close out this important game in favor of Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley. Is a message being sent?

Sportsbooks have Barrett listed at 17.5 points for tonight, and that's a number I wouldn't bank on. The atmosphere of the Knicks at the moment, with Hart making himself a quick fan favorite, feels like Barrett's role is about to take an even more significant diminishing. Last night, the former Duke standout played 27 minutes. That's the second time in the last three games he hasn't logged 30 minutes.

While Barrett does have the potential to get hot, he struggles against teams with real small forwards who can defend. He's always been more of a two-guard, and that's very evident when he faces teams that have small forwards with real size. Tonight, he gets the Brandon Ingram assignment, and that's not one that he matches up well against. In four career games, Barrett is averaging 14.3 points on 37.7 percent shooting against the talented Ingram.

Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle have earned a ton of respect and the always-coveted "green light" from the coaching staff. Last night, they combined for 49 attempts, while the other three starters only attempted 20 altogether.

The issue isn't so much Barrett's ability to score. But he’s streaky, and his opportunities have been trending in the wrong direction of late. Thibodeau favors tenacious defenders, and Quickley and Hart fit the bill. I would take the under comfortably for Barrett's points, as he could be the next victim of Thibodeau's role-reduction campaign.

My best bet: RJ Barrett Under 17.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)

Pelicans vs Knicks spread analysis

Tonight, the Knicks are -2.5 favorites over the Pelicans as they enter Madison Square Garden. 

The Knicks are relieved that Zion Williamson won't be available as he is a dynamic power forward and one of the most athletic and strongest players to ever play basketball. Without him, the Pelicans fall from a potential contender to a borderline play-in tournament team.

However, the Knicks will still have to deal with Brandon Ingram, who could give them trouble tonight. Barrett will get the first chance at guarding Ingram, but his spotty defense this season doesn't leave many with confidence that he can contain the talented forward. The Knicks could try throwing Grimes and Hart at him, but the significant height difference could make it relatively easy for Ingram to shoot over them.

The Knicks will counter with Julius Randle, who hasn't missed a game the entire season and most recently scored 46 points against the Washington Wizards. Randle's toughness is admirable in a league where load management has become the norm. With Williamson not available, Randle is expected to take advantage of his matchup with whoever the Pelicans choose to match him up against, as Ingram and Herb Jones are not physically big enough to bang with the two-time All-Star.

The Knicks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine Saturday games, but have recently performed well, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Without Williamson, the Pelicans shouldn't be able to keep up with the Knicks. If Randle continues to carry the team alongside Brunson and performs up to par, the Knicks should cover tonight.

Pelicans vs Knicks Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for tonight's matchup is available between 223.5 and 224 across most popular sportsbooks. The Knicks got off to a slow start against the Wizards on Thursday before ultimately turning on the defensive heat, holding Washington to a mere 45 points in the second half. If they bring that level of intensity from the beginning, the Under should be a real option.

The Pelicans have the 18th-ranked offensive rating, and the Knicks, who have a defensive rating of 113 (10th best) since Hart joined the team, should be in a position to slow down the Pelicans' attack enough. New York ranks 28th in pace and will likely lure the Pelicans into playing more half-court offense, which favors the Under tonight.

Pelicans vs Knicks betting trend to know

Under is 4-0 in Pelicans’ last four when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Knicks.

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