The Rockets downed the Pelicans in New Orleans on Thursday, and the two teams will meet at Toyota Center tonight for a rematch.
Houston has won all three matchups this season, but New Orleans will look to get back in the win column against its Southwest Division rival.
My Pelicans vs. Rockets predictions expect Zion Williamson to continue his hot streak and Jalen Green to find success from beyond the arc at home.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should bet the Over on Williamson’s combo prop and Green’s three-pointer line.
Pelicans vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Zion Williamson Over 35.5 points+rebounds+assists (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Availability has been the biggest concern for New Orleans Pelicans star Zion Williamson throughout his career, but when he’s on the court?
There’s no denying just how good this guy is. He’s been on a roll as of late, and his PRA line is set way too low for me not to hammer the Over.
Williamson has appeared in seven of eight since the All-Star break and 12 of New Orleans’ last 15 games overall.
Since the break, he’s averaged 38.1 PRA and hit the Over on this line four times, posting 34 PRA in another contest.
He finished with 20/10/3 against the Houston Rockets on Thursday, but he’s had success against Houston in his brief NBA tenure.
In eight career matchups with the Rockets, Williamson has averaged 24 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, good for 35.3 PRA. He posted at least 36 PRA in four of those, including two of his last four.
Houston’s defense has been stellar this season, but over the last 15, the Rockets have been generous to opposing PFs.
In that span, Houston has surrendered 37.2 PRA to the position, and Williamson should be able to take advantage of the favorable matchup on the road while picking up the slack for an injury-riddled Pelicans team.
Williamson has hit the Over on this line in 15 of 25 games this season, good for 60% of his appearances. I’d expect these odds to be a bit shorter, so I’ll happily take them at a discounted -120.
Williamson has hit the Over in four straight and six of seven on the road.
Tonight’s matchup is a perfect convergence of a strong matchup, increased opportunity, and a mispriced line for Williamson while he’s in the midst of a heater.
I expect him to blast off at Toyota Center tonight and give the Rockets all they can handle. Houston, you have a problem.
Pelicans vs Rockets same-game parlay
Zion Williamson Over 35.5 pts+reb+ast
Jalen Green 2+ three-pointers
Rockets -8
Jalen Green’s line is set at 2.5, but I’ll take the alt line here for extra assurance in our three-leg parlay. Over the last eight, New Orleans has allowed the third-most three-pointers (16.1).
Green is knocking down a career-high 2.9 triples this season, and he’s averaged 3.8 across his last five tilts with New Orleans. Green hit multiple threes in all five of those against the Pels, and he’s reached that mark in 44 of 63 games this season.
The Pels can keep this one close for a while, but ultimately, I expect the Rockets to pull away and cover the modest spread at home.
Houston is just 15-15 ATS at home, but New Orleans is 9-23 ATS on the road.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pelicans vs Rockets odds
Pelicans vs Rockets live odds
Pelicans vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +8 (-105) | Houston -8 (-115)
- Moneyline: New Orleans (+265) | Houston (-330)
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- New Orleans has failed to cover in four straight.
- Houston is 33-28-2 ATS this season
- The game total has gone Under in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between the Rockets and Pelicans.
Pelicans vs Rockets trend
The New Orleans Pelicans have only covered the Spread in 32 of their last 83 games (-22.95 Units / -25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Rockets.
How to watch Pelicans vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | GCSEN, SCHN |
Pelicans vs Rockets latest injuries
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