The injury bug has bitten the New Orleans Pelicans early and often already this season, and they've fallen to 3-8 ahead of their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
My Pelicans vs. Thunder predictions expect Oklahoma City's depth and style to help cover this monster spread despite the absence of Chet Holmgren.
Find out why in my NBA picks for November 13.
Pelicans vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Thunder -14.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Expectations were high for the Oklahoma City Thunder heading into the season, and a 9-2 start has fans excited for what this team's ceiling is.
Although they've lost Chet Holmgren for the time being after he fractured his pelvis earlier this week, it doesn't compare to the New Orleans Pelicans' injury report, which includes the likes of Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, and Zion Willamson.
In their absences, NOLA has turned to Brandon Boston at point guard, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl at power forward, and Yves Missi at center. The first two averaged 10.8 and 8.6 minutes per game last year, and Missi is a rookie who went 21st overall in arguably the weakest draft class in nearly a decade.
And they haven't exactly filled in the greatest thus far. New Orleans ranks 23rd and 30th in offensive and defensive rating, combining for the third-worst net rating. The Pels' 101.0 offensive rating in the two games since Zion's injury would by far and away be the worst mark of this season and would be the worst mark since 2015.
Comparatively, the Thunder are first in the league in net rating, which includes the league's best defensive rating. The Pelicans also have played to the fourth-slowest pace and may struggle to keep up with the fifth-fastest Thunder.
Pelicans vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -14.5
Brandon Boston Over 5.5 rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 turnovers
Because the Thunder have been without a true center this season, they've given up a very abnormal 8.6 rebounds per game to opposing point guards.
That mark not only leads the league, but the gap between them and the next-highest is as large as the gap between that mark and the seventh-highest.
We should look to Brandon Boston on that front, who has been the Pelicans primary point guard in the absences of McCollum and Murray.
On the other side of that matchup, the Pelicans have forced 4.4 turnovers on opposing PGs this year. This should mean that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should go over tonight's total, which he's gone Over in six of his last seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pelicans vs Thunder odds
Pelicans vs Thunder live odds
Pelicans vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +14.5 | Oklahoma City -14.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +750 | Oklahoma City -1,200
- Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- New Orleans is a league-worst 2-9 ATS and has gone 0-5 on the road.
- Oklahoma City has gone 6-5 to the Over but has gone 4-2 to the Over at home.
- The Pelicans have gone 8-3 to the Over, tied for the third-highest rate of Overs on the season.
Pelicans vs Thunder trend
The Thunder are 7-4 against the spread, tied for the fifth-highest cover rate in the league. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pelicans vs Thunder
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pelicans vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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