Best NBA Player Props Today: Murray Keeps Feeding Hungry Hawks

Prop bet #1: Murray returns

On Wednesday, we bet the Over on Murray's assists prop when it was trading at 4.5 and juiced to -140, and Murray delivered with five dimes and a green checkmark. The best part about how Murray won this bet on Wednesday was that he just snuck over the total of 4.5, which didn't raise any alarms as to how many assists he could have had against the Toronto Raptors.

Murray had 16 potential assists against the Raptors on Wednesday, while the Hawks guard only averages 10.4 potential assists per game on the season. So, while Murray won us our bet, his assists could have been significantly higher. I, for one, am glad his teammates missed the shots because it resulted in bet365 opening Friday's line at 4.5 (-130). Thanks, I'll take the Over once again.

The Hawks guards combined for 39 potential assists against the Raptors, with Trae Young dropping 17 dimes. The Raptors struggled to contain both Murray and Young, but the bigger issue for the Raptors was they had a difficult time guarding the lob threats of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in the pick-and-roll. This led to easy assists for Young and Murray, on top of the assists they already get from their 3-point shooters in Saddiq Bey and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Murray is projected to have 5.7 assists on Friday against the Raptors, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -195, with Dejounte Murray odds of -130 available at bet365.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 4.5 assists (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Dennis menaces

When the Raptors and Hawks met on Wednesday, Schroder had seven assists, making it quite tempting to dismiss the Under on a line of 6.5 assists for Friday's matchup. However, I'm here to emphasize that we shouldn't ignore it, and it's actually offering an attractive price at plus money.

Schroder played a season-high 37 minutes on Wednesday against the Hawks, so what if those minutes drop to, let's say, 33 minutes? It all plays a factor. It's not like he surpassed the total with 10 assists or anything; he just went Over the 6.5 with 7 dimes.

From a basketball perspective, the Raptors don't necessarily need Schroder to generate offense for everyone against the Hawks. We witnessed Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Malachi Flynn all exceeding their assists totals against the Hawks on Wednesday. 

The Raptors have offensive advantages on the wings against the Hawks due to their injuries to De'Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson. This means that we should see Siakam and Barnes involved in more actions, potentially diverting assist opportunities away from Schroder.

Schroder is projected to have 6.5 dimes against Ice Trae & Co. on Friday, allowing us to price the Under 6.5 assists at -113, but FanDuel has Dennis Schroder odds at +120. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 17%.

Dennis Schroder prop: Under 6.5 assists (+120 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Deni glaze

I know everyone is absolutely dialed in on Washington Wizards basketball these days, as they are surely at the top of everyone's NBA League Pass power rankings. If you don't know who Deni Avdija is, he is a 6'9, 23-year-old point forward who's averaging a career-high 12.1 points per game this season.

The Wizards will be taking on the Indiana Pacers on Friday, and the matchup plays a big factor in why I'm targeting Deni Avdija odds for assists. For starters, the Pacers give up a ton of baskets at the rim. So, if you're a 6'9 guard like Avdija driving the lane against the Pacers, you aren't looking to kick it out when the defensive rotation slides over; you're looking to score yourself at the rim. (Giannis Antetokounmpo: 64 points and 3 assists)

One of the main issues the Wizards constantly face is that they lack rim protection and have a relatively small lineup. Against the Pacers, this is less of an issue, and the Wizards could run with a smaller lineup. So, instead of attempting to field a larger team for rebounding and utilizing Avdija as a guard, where he can create offense, against the Pacers, the Wizards could deploy Avdija more as a forward. This shift should reduce his potential opportunities for assists.

Avdija is projected to have 4.6 assists on Friday against the Pacers, which means we can price the Under 4.5 assists at -110, but it is trading at DraftKings at +124.

Deni Avdija prop: Under 4.5 assists (+124 at DraftKings)