Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction, Picks, Odds, and Best Bet: Fade Buffs in Folsom

In a shock to absolutely no one, the public has resoundingly backed the Colorado Buffaloes this weekend, the underdog with the most bets to win outright at BetMGM as of Friday morning. Do the Kansas State Wildcats deserve that doubt?

My Kansas State vs. Colorado predictions will focus more on if the Buffaloes have done anything to deserve that faith. These free college football picks do not like the hook that remains if backing the Wildcats, but that is still the right choice to make before kickoff on Saturday, October 12.

For more thoughts on this game, check out our Kansas State vs. Colorado props.

Kansas State vs Colorado prediction and best bet

My best bet
Kansas State -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
This week’s episode of “College Football 134” included a brief pondering of if the Colorado Buffaloes have shown enough to be considered a live underdog, especially at home. It was meant as a compliment. A year ago, the Buffaloes absolutely did not deserve that kind of intrigue on the field. But now?

The counterargument against that compliment is not complicated. What has Colorado done to deserve that intrigue? Yes, cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter is one of the best players in the country, and quarterback Shedeur Sanders has a delightfully strong arm.

But the Buffaloes’ burgeoning reputation is built on beating Colorado State, Baylor and Central Florida. The Rams are a bottom-quarter team this season. Let’s move on.

The Bears have seemingly quit on head coach Dave Aranda, and all the same, they should have beaten Colorado. Baylor was a 2.5-point home underdog but got out to a 24-10 lead before the Buffaloes forced overtime via a Hail Mary that is best described as a complete and total failure by the Bears’ defensive backfield.

And then the Knights have not meshed as was widely expected in Gus Malzahn’s fourth season. Malzahn is not quite on a hot seat, but if this season does not turn around, he could spend the offseason in desperation mode.

Furthermore, that Colorado blowout can be traced somewhat to game state. Central Florida needs to run the ball to be successful. Once the Buffaloes held a 27-14 halftime lead, the Knights were going to devolve. Hence, a 48-21 final score.

Look, Colorado is better than it was last year. But it has not yet done anything this season to demand praise as being a genuinely good team.

Every metric considers the Kansas State Wildcats a genuinely good team. An utterly botched late-night at BYU is the only reason the Wildcats are not a prime piece of the Playoff conversation right now, and a few October wins will change that.

Advanced numbers suggest Kansas State should be at least a 4-point favorite, if not closer to a touchdown. The hook on -3.5 is less than ideal, but there is still value in siding with the Wildcats.

Kansas State vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)

Kansas State -3.5

Under 55.5

Shedeur Sanders Over 294.5 passing yards

+650 at BetMGM

I have said it before, and I’ll say it again. Deion Sanders brought his Louis Vutton to Colorado’s roster at the skill positions, but he still has wet grocery bags along the offensive line. Kansas State has a strong defensive front seven, one that already stresses quarterbacks on 16.8% of snaps. That rate is only decent, but what stands out is the 4.9 expected points those snaps cost opponents per game, the second-highest number in the Big 12.

Colorado lives and dies by the pass, not by screens, play-action, or run-pass options, but by the clear-and-simple drop-back pass. The cost of that is losing 4.6 expected points per game when Sanders is pressured, the second-highest number in the Big 12 behind only Houston’s -5.0. Worse yet, Sanders has felt that heat on 33.9% of snaps. The next-worst number in the conference is Houston at a mere 16.9%.

Kansas State harassing Sanders helps the thought of the spread, the Under, and even the Over passing yardage, because he will be playing from behind both on the scoreboard and from the chains.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Kansas State vs Colorado odds

Kansas State vs Colorado live odds

Kansas State vs Colorado opening odds

• Kansas State vs. Colorado spread: Colorado +6
• Kansas State vs. Colorado moneyline: Kansas State -210, Colorado +170
• Kansas State vs. Colorado Over/Under: 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Kansas State vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

• Sunday’s earliest valid line opened with Kansas State as a 4-point favorite, a number that climbed to -5.5 by the end of Sunday before falling to -4.5 on Monday.
• Paradoxically, BetMGM reports only 35% of the money has come in on Colorado this week, as of Friday morning, yet the spread fell to -3.5. Perhaps bookmakers are making an adjustment from their opening numbers or, more likely, they are preparing for the public influx of Buffaloes’ backers as the weekend commences.
• The total opened as low as 54.5 on Sunday before immediately jumping to 55.5 and then reaching 56.5 before the evening, where it has largely remained this week. It ticked back down to 55.5 at some books on Thursday evening or Friday morning.

Kansas State vs Colorado betting trend to know

Since Chris Klieman took over as head coach in 2019, Kansas State is 12-3-2 against the spread as a one-possession favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Colorado.

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