Best NBA Player Props Today: Maxey's Assists Prop Is Too High

Prop bet #1: Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers will face the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, a team that Maxey had an outstanding performance against, dishing out eight assists in their previous matchup on November 22. Maxey has also surpassed the total of 6.5 assists in five of his last seven games.

So, why am I betting on the under? In their prior encounter on November 22, the 76ers played without Joel Embiid. This resulted in a higher usage percentage for Maxey, who was tasked with creating much of the offense for the 76ers. Despite the increased usage percentage, Maxey was only able to generate 11 potential assists against the Timberwolves.

The absence of Embiid in the lineup also meant that the Timberwolves applied more help defense on Maxey's drives, opening up passing lanes for Paul Reed and other 76ers players to finish at the rim. However, with Gobert assigned to defend Embiid on Wednesday, he won't be helping on Maxey's drives as much. This puts pressure on Maxey to finish around the rim instead of making passes.

Maxey is projected to have 6.1 assists on Wednesday, allowing us to set the Under 6.5 assists at -150. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 12%.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 6.5 assists (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Collin Sexton

We have a revenge game on Wednesday as Collin Sexton returns to Ohio for the first time to face the team that drafted him and traded him to the Utah Jazz in the Donovan Mitchell deal. This will be Sexton's first game against the Cleveland Cavaliers since the trade, as he missed both games last season.

The Jazz are without guards Keyonte George and Jordan Clarkson, both sidelined with injuries. George, identified as the point guard of the future by the Jazz, is currently out, providing an opportunity for extended playing time for other guards on the team, such as Talen Horton-Tucker, Kris Dunn, and Ochai Agbaji.

Both Dunn and Horton-Tucker are more creators than scorers, as evident in the plays the Jazz ran on Monday against the Brooklyn Nets. Horton-Tucker was more involved on the ball than Sexton, running the pick and roll and tallying assists in these plays. Although Sexton managed six assists, they came in a manner that may not reliably generate consistent assists compared to Horton-Tucker.

Moreover, do we genuinely expect Sexton, a scorer, to prioritize passing against his former team? The Jazz rely on him for scoring, especially with Dunn and Horton-Tucker as capable creators. Every minute Sexton shares with these two pushes him off the ball.

Sexton is projected to have 4.6 assists on Wednesday against Mitchell and the Cavaliers, allowing us to set the Under 4.5 assists at -105.

Collin Sexton prop: Under 4.5 assists (+125 at theScoreBet)

Prop bet #3: Terry Rozier

This is the second time we have targeted the Under on Terry Rozier's assists prop, trading at 7.5 in the absence of LaMelo Ball, and let's hope this time ends similarly to the last bet — with a green checkmark and more money in our accounts. I know Rozier handles the ball more for the Charlotte Hornets in Ball's absence, but a total of 7.5 with increased juice on the Over just isn't where I believe Rozier should be trading. 

Not only do I think the total is too high for Rozier, but he is playing in a matchup on Wednesday where I believe we can capitalize on it. The Hornets have a roster with multiple wing players and a lob threat in Mark Williams, who looks to Rozier to create offense for everyone. 

Against the Indiana Pacers, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, PJ Washington, and Gordon Hayward won't need Rozier's help to generate offense. When these two teams met in November, albeit with Ball playing, Hayward had more potential assists than Rozier, and Washington had the same amount with six.

Not only will the Hornets' wings be able to generate offense on their own, but Rozier will also be without his main lob threat in Williams, who is doubtful with an injury. Williams torched the Pacers for 27 points in their previous meeting, converting a ton of potential assists for his teammates.

Rozier is projected to have seven assists on Wednesday against Indiana, which means we can price the Under 7.5 assists at -152. Still, it is available at Caesars for even money.

Terry Rozier prop: Under 7.5 assists (+100 at Caesars)