There are nine games on the NBA betting board this New Year's Eve which means plenty of basketball action before popping that champagne at midnight.
The NBA is a superstar-driven league but some of the best value on betting NBA player props comes from looking at players who don't get as much action from bettors and receive less scrutiny from oddsmakers.
That's why I'm fading Charlotte's Terry Rozier, expecting some miscues from Kevin Porter Jr., and backing an under-the-radar Spurs rookie. Here are my best free NBA player prop picks for Saturday, December 31.
NBA player props for December 31
Picks made on 12/31/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Terry tucked in
Charlotte guard Terry Rozier is averaging 19.9 points per game, but with LaMelo Ball back in the lineup he has seen his production decrease. Rozier has always been an inefficient shooter and with less shot volume lately, his numbers have understandably dipped.
Although Kelly Oubre is out with a hand injury today, the Hornets have other capable scorers including Gordan Hayward and PJ Washington (21.3 ppg in the last four games) so they won't need Rozier to chuck.
Rozier has scored fewer than 20 points in five of his last six games. The lone contest during that span where he went over that number was against the defensively inept Lakers last week when he shot 60% from the field and went 5-for-8 from beyond the arc.
Considering that he shoots 39% from the field and 30.8% from 3-point range on the season, those numbers were clearly an outlier. Expect him to go below his points total today against a Nets squad that is surprisingly seventh in the league in scoring defense (111.2 ppg).
Terry Rozier Prop: Under 20.5 points (-115)
Porterpotty
The Rockets keep losing despite some solid performances from Kevin Porter Jr. The point guard is second on the team with 19.3 ppg while leading the squad with 5.8 apg, but he also averages 3.7 turnovers per game — the fifth-worst number in the NBA.
The Knicks don't do a great job of pressuring opposing ball handlers but it doesn't take much for this 22-year-old to make mistakes, especially when he tries to do too much for his team.
Porter is coming off a game against the Mavs where he turned the ball over four times and he has had at least four turnovers in nine of 14 games this month. That would make me consider the Over on his turnovers if it was set at 3.5, but instead, we're getting that number at 2.5 and juiced only moderately toward the Over at -130.
Kevin Porter Jr. Prop: Over 2.5 turnovers (-130)
Glass cleaning
The Dallas Mavericks are on a five-game winning streak, and after beating the Rockets on Thursday, they'll look to defeat their other Texas-based rival tonight.
One area where the Mavs have struggled has been on the boards where they rank dead-last in the league in rebounding rate.
That should mean plenty of rebounding opportunities for San Antonio rookie Jeremy Sochan. The Spurs have one of the worst records in the league, but the 19-year-old Sochan has shown plenty of promise after getting taken ninth overall in the 2022 draft.
The versatile forward was the second-best rebounder at Baylor as a freshman and that hard work on the glass has carried over to the pros. Sochan has snagged at least seven rebounds in four of his last six games and is averaging 7.3 rpg over that span.
Jeremy Sochan Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-125)
