The NBA odds slate is loaded on Tuesday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks facing off against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns, and we've searched through the player prop markets to bring you the best NBA picks for Tuesday's games.
It's hard to label Tuesday's matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks as an NBA Finals rematch, considering the Suns now have a nearly entirely different roster from when these teams met just a couple of seasons ago.
One of the new faces, Bradley Beal, recently returned to Washington over the weekend and dropped 43 points on his old team.
Will any of the Suns or Bucks players make my card on Tuesday? Let's take a closer look at the three NBA player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Tuesday, February 6.
Best NBA player props today
- Paolo Banchero Over 4.5 assists (-105 at DraftKings)
- Devin Booker Over 27.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
- Jusuf Nurkic Over 3.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made on February 6 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for February 6
Prop bet #1: Paolo Alto
As someone who watches a ton of Orlando Magic basketball (they're my favorite team), I'm surprised that the sportsbooks are still trading Banchero at Over 4.5 (-105) for his assists prop. Banchero has gone Over the total of 4.5 in his last seven games, and yet we're still not seeing an adjustment here to the price to account for Banchero's evolving role within the Magic offense.
Make no mistake about it; Banchero may be listed as a 6'10 power forward, but the second-year player is running the Magic offense. When Jalen Suggs or Markelle Fultz brings up the ball, they are giving it to Banchero to initiate the offense from the perimeter and heading to a wing or corner.
In the last seven games where Banchero has gone Over the total of 4.5 in each game, he is averaging 10.6 potential assists per game, which leads the Magic. Banchero is already leading them in potential assists of late, but with first place on the line in the Southeast division, imagine how much Banchero will be on the ball for the Magic on Tuesday against the Miami Heat.
Not only would Banchero's general role in the Magic offense have me eyeing this Over 4.5 (-105), but the matchup with the Heat also plays a big role. The Heat lack a perimeter defender with the size, speed, and strength to match Banchero. This led to them sending a lot of doubles the last time these two teams met, and Banchero is a willing passer out of the double team.
In his three games against the Heat already this season, Banchero's averaging 10.7 potential assists per game, and he's becoming more comfortable as a playmaker as the season progresses. With all of this in mind and his projection to drop 5.2 dimes against the Heat, I'm playing the Over 4.5; Paolo Banchero odds can be priced at -136 based on our projection.
Paolo Banchero prop: Over 4.5 assists (-105 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Booking a win
While the Phoenix Suns have a much different roster than when they faced the Bucks back in the 2021 NBA Finals, there is one person on the Suns who will remember being on the losing end: Devin Booker. Let's face it; this matchup against the Bucks is personal for Booker, and he's someone who can heat up in a hurry when playing with a sense of purpose.
Not only will Booker be out for revenge on Tuesday, something he doesn't get often against the Bucks because the Suns only play them twice a year, but the Bucks don't possess a defense that can slow him down.
The Bucks' strength on defense is their interior and ability to protect the rim. That won't impact Booker at all, who possesses one of the purest jump shots in the NBA and can score 30 a night off his 3-point shooting and mid-range jump shots. Booker won't be challenging Brook Lopez or Giannis Antetokounmpo at the rim; he's going to stop and pop from 15 feet.
In all of Booker's previous matchups against the Bucks, he had to deal with Jrue Holiday guarding him on the perimeter. It will be a much different story for Booker on Tuesday with Holiday now in Boston, because Malik Beasley and Damian Lillard are not the type of perimeter defenders who will be disruptive to Booker's game. This is one of those matchups where the Bucks will really miss the defense of Holiday.
Booker is projected to score 29.9 points on Tuesday against the Bucks, allowing us to price the Over 27.5 points at -145, but Devin Booker odds of -120 are available at DraftKings. Once the narrative and edge in pricing take off with this bet, I wouldn't be surprised to see it steam to 28.5.
Devin Booker prop: Over 27.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Truth Nurks
If you've been following my assists props all season, you'd know that the Over for centers when facing the Bucks is something I have consistently attacked when we have the right player and price point to do so. Jusuf Nurkic odds qualify on both fronts on Tuesday, with the Over 3.5 assists trading at +105.
The Over on Nurkic's assists prop has been a sneaky good bet all season long, as the Suns use him as a mini-hub, and Nurkic isn't afraid to bring up the ball as well. Nurkic's ability to handle the ball and get Lopez moving on the perimeter will put a ton of pressure on the Bucks defense and their ability to guard dribble handoff actions.
Nurkic is capable of shooting the three, which will pull Lopez away from the rim, opening up passes to cutters as well. More specifically, look for Nurkic to run some actions with Kevin Durant, where he pulls Lopez away from the rim and feeds Durant on a cut to the basket.
Nurkic is the exact type of center that we have seen have big games against the Bucks when it comes to the assists props this season. When looking at player props, projecting minutes is a big part of the equation, and while Nurkic can get faded for a small-ball lineup that features Eric Gordon, that will be a lot less likely on Tuesday as the Suns will need his size on the interior against this Bucks frontcourt.
Nurkic is projected to have four assists on Tuesday against the Bucks, allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -127, but it is trading at +105 at BetMGM.
Jusuf Nurkic prop: Over 3.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)
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