We’re heading into the final month of the NBA regular season, and there’s still lots of potential for movement in the standings, even with both No. 1 seeds seemingly locked up.
That makes the NBA player props market the place to be as the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers go head-to-head again tonight, as do the Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies in a likely scoring bonanza.
Read on for my three top NBA picks ahead of a busy March 14 slate, including wagers on two former MVPs.
Best NBA player props today
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Quentin Grimes Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
James Harden Over 9.5 assists (-120 at bet365) -
Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 rebounds + assists (-120 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 14
Quentin Grimes Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Philadelphia 76ers’ drop down the standings is going to plan, but that hasn’t stopped Quentin Grimes from flashing the kind of scoring upside that was rarely seen in his prior 3-and-D roles.
I expect that to continue tonight against a run-and-gun Indiana Pacers team, and the Grimes points prop Over offers good value here. He’s averaging 26.1 ppg in March on 54% shooting, including a 29-point effort in the midweek loss in Toronto, and he’s cruised past this 20.5 number in four of his past five outings.
With Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey all out, Grimes has willingly embraced the challenge as the No. 1 option for Philly. He’s taken 48 shots across his last two games, with 19 of those coming from 3-point range.
Indiana has given up at least 120 points in three of its last four contests, and I like this volume play with Grimes, who could see 35+ minutes as long as he’s not jeopardizing the 76ers’ bid to pad the loss column.
James Harden Over 9.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
We should see some special playmaking tonight at State Farm Arena, with Trae Young and James Harden sharing the court. While Young leads the league with 11.5 apg, it’s The Beard who I’m targeting as a best bet.
Some of that stems from the sheer numbers that Harden has posted lately for this Los Angeles Clippers team, with 39 dimes across his last three games, including a 17-assist masterpiece against the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday.
But I’m also banking on his minutes load to remain sky-high. He’s logged a whopping 38.9 mpg so far this month, up from 37.7 in February, with Ty Lue seemingly nervous about the state of the L.A. offense when Harden sits.
While Dyson Daniels is a terrific on-ball defender, Harden can overpower him on drives to the hoop — and there’s also the Young mismatch to target on that end of the floor.
The Clippers have won four of their last five games, scoring at least 119 points three times in that span, and I predict Harden will have the offense humming again tonight.
Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 rebounds + assists (-120 at bet365)
This is a tough spot for the Los Angeles Lakers, traveling to Mile High City on the second night of a back-to-back set without LeBron James. And I see the Denver Nuggets getting payback after a 123-100 loss to L.A. last month.
As usual, that starts with a monster game from Nikola Jokic, and I’m grabbing the Over on his rebounds + assists prop here. Jokic is putting together another dominant month, and this combo prop jumps out to me after seeing the Lakers stifle his scoring in their last matchup.
Joker could get most of the way to cashing this pick with his work on the glass alone. He’s averaging 14.8 rpg in March, including two contests with 18 or more boards, and the Lakers are vulnerable there with such a thin frontcourt rotation.
While Jokic’s assist numbers have been up and down, this is still the guy who dished 22 dimes against the Phoenix Suns a week ago.
The Nuggets are in a real fight to snatch the No. 2 seed in the West — and even to avoid dropping as low as No. 5 — so this matchup should have Joker’s full attention tonight.
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NBA odds today
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