Best NBA Player Props Today for March 7: Durant Shines in the Mile High City

The Phoenix Suns' season has been an unmitigated disaster, but that hasn't stopped Kevin Durant from remaining one of the league's top scorers.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Mar 7, 2025 • 14:35 ET • 4 min read
Kevin Durant Phoenix Suns NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images. Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Although it's been a disappointing season for the Phoenix Suns, Kevin Durant is still playing at an elite level.

My NBA picks for Friday are betting on KD to have a big game in Denver, and I'm also backing Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley and Kings center Jonas Valanciunas.

Here are my best free NBA player props for Friday, March 7.

Best NBA player props today

NBA player props for March 7

Immanuel Quickley Over 20.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Immanuel Quickley has dropped at least 20 points in six of his last 10 games, and I expect another big-time performance tonight. 

With R.J. Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Gradey Dick all ruled out for the Toronto Raptors, Quickley should see his usage rate and shot attempts increase. He also faces a Utah Jazz squad that is 30th in the NBA in defensive rating and 28th in points per game allowed (119.8).

Quickley sits in the top 15% of the league in midrange efficiency and knocks down 2.3 threes per game at a 37.5% clip. Meanwhile, Utah ranks last in the league in both mid-range defense and threes allowed per game (14.7). 

Expect Quickley to carry the offensive burden for the Raps and light up this turnstile Jazz defense. 

Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)

Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis remains out with a hamstring strain, but veteran big man Jonas Valanciunas has proven more than capable of picking up the slack. 

Sabonis got injured at the start of last Saturday's game against Houston, and Valanciunas came on in relief to pull down 14 boards in 30 minutes. Valanciunas grabbed nine rebounds in just 23 minutes against Dallas on Monday before bouncing back with a 13-rebound performance against Denver two days ago.

Valanciunas should be able to own the glass against a San Antonio Spurs squad that's struggled inside without Victor Wembanyama. Since losing Wemby and backup center Charles Bassey, the Spurs are 28th in the NBA in rebounding rate (46%). They also upped their tempo since acquiring De'Aaaron Fox, ranking eighth in the league in pace since his arrival. 

With the Spurs pushing the pace and struggling on the boards, expect Valanciunas to eclipse 11.5 rebounds tonight.

Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Kevin Durant is averaging 26.9 points per game, and the Phoenix Suns superstar has dropped at least 26 points in three of his last four games. 

The future Hall-of-Famer is now the unquestioned top dog for the Suns, with Devin Booker averaging a modest 12 field goal attempts per game over his last three contests. 

On the other side of the floor, the Denver Nuggets are right around the league average in defensive efficiency. That, combined with their fast tempo (fifth in the NBA in pace), has led to them allowing 115.9 ppg — the ninth-worst mark in the league.

The Nuggets might also be missing their top defender in Aaron Gordon, who is listed as questionable after missing the last three games with a sprained ankle. I like Durant to surpass his points total even if Gordon plays, and if he sits again, this prop looks even better.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NBA odds today

Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo