Although it's been a disappointing season for the Phoenix Suns, Kevin Durant is still playing at an elite level.
My NBA picks for Friday are betting on KD to have a big game in Denver, and I'm also backing Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley and Kings center Jonas Valanciunas.
Here are my best free NBA player props for Friday, March 7.
Best NBA player props today
Quickley o20.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Valanciunas o11.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Durant o25.5 points (-120 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 7
Immanuel Quickley Over 20.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Immanuel Quickley has dropped at least 20 points in six of his last 10 games, and I expect another big-time performance tonight.
With R.J. Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Gradey Dick all ruled out for the Toronto Raptors, Quickley should see his usage rate and shot attempts increase. He also faces a Utah Jazz squad that is 30th in the NBA in defensive rating and 28th in points per game allowed (119.8).
Quickley sits in the top 15% of the league in midrange efficiency and knocks down 2.3 threes per game at a 37.5% clip. Meanwhile, Utah ranks last in the league in both mid-range defense and threes allowed per game (14.7).
Expect Quickley to carry the offensive burden for the Raps and light up this turnstile Jazz defense.
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis remains out with a hamstring strain, but veteran big man Jonas Valanciunas has proven more than capable of picking up the slack.
Sabonis got injured at the start of last Saturday's game against Houston, and Valanciunas came on in relief to pull down 14 boards in 30 minutes. Valanciunas grabbed nine rebounds in just 23 minutes against Dallas on Monday before bouncing back with a 13-rebound performance against Denver two days ago.
Valanciunas should be able to own the glass against a San Antonio Spurs squad that's struggled inside without Victor Wembanyama. Since losing Wemby and backup center Charles Bassey, the Spurs are 28th in the NBA in rebounding rate (46%). They also upped their tempo since acquiring De'Aaaron Fox, ranking eighth in the league in pace since his arrival.
With the Spurs pushing the pace and struggling on the boards, expect Valanciunas to eclipse 11.5 rebounds tonight.
Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Kevin Durant is averaging 26.9 points per game, and the Phoenix Suns superstar has dropped at least 26 points in three of his last four games.
The future Hall-of-Famer is now the unquestioned top dog for the Suns, with Devin Booker averaging a modest 12 field goal attempts per game over his last three contests.
On the other side of the floor, the Denver Nuggets are right around the league average in defensive efficiency. That, combined with their fast tempo (fifth in the NBA in pace), has led to them allowing 115.9 ppg — the ninth-worst mark in the league.
The Nuggets might also be missing their top defender in Aaron Gordon, who is listed as questionable after missing the last three games with a sprained ankle. I like Durant to surpass his points total even if Gordon plays, and if he sits again, this prop looks even better.
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NBA odds today
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