Best NBA Player Props Today: Fox Faces Opportune Matchup in Philly

Prop bet #1: Sticking with Sengun

There's a meme circulating on X featuring Nikola Jokic as Charizard, Domantas Sabonis as Charmeleon, and Alperen Sengun as Charmander. Surprisingly, it's one of the most accurate memes on NBA Twitter, and I bet you weren't expecting a Pokémon reference in this article.

So, how is this relevant to the bet at hand? Sengun will be playing the Detroit Pistons on Friday, and ironically, we've recently seen Jokic (16 assists) and Sabonis (13 assists) dominate the Pistons with a ton of dimes. All three of these forwards play a very similar style of basketball, being utilized as a hub in their team's offense. The recent success of Jokic and Sabonis against the Pistons draws your attention to the Houston Rockets center for tonight's matchup.

Not only does the matchup favor us, but I think you're getting a better price on Sengun than you should be because he's gone Under the total in four of his last five games. However, it's not because he wasn't generating potential assists. In his previous five games, Sengun averaged 9.8 potential assists per game, but they only converted into 3.2 actual assists per game. The opportunities have been there; his teammates just haven't made the shots.

Sengun is projected to have 5.4 assists on Friday against the Pistons, allowing us to price the Over at -160, but it is available at BetMGM at -135. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 7%.

Alperen Sengun prop: Over 4.5 assists (-135 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: What does the Fox say?

I don't think any point guard's assists total consistently fluctuates more than De'Aaron Fox, who is trading with a total of 4.5 on Friday. We have seen him spend some time trading at 6.5 as well this season. These fluctuations in Fox's total happen so drastically because he is playing alongside Sabonis, who is also a high assists player. This dynamic can send Fox on some Under streaks in his assists total, and that is what we are in the middle of right now — four straight Unders for the Sacramento Kings point guard.

On Wednesday, we jumped at a Dejounte Murray Over 4.5 assists, largely because the Philadelphia 76ers would be without Joel Embiid. No Embiid for the 76ers means significantly less rim protection, and easier finishes at the rim for everyone on the Kings. Embiid has an argument for Defensive Player of the Year, so when a player like that is no longer patrolling the paint on defense, those dump-offs from Fox to his teammates have a chance to be converted at a higher rate.

If the four straight Unders for Fox on his assists total scare you, I wouldn't sweat it. Three of those games were complete blowouts where Fox saw decreased minutes, and the Kings didn't necessarily need him to create offense against the Pistons and Hornets.

Fox is projected to have 5.9 assists on Friday, well above the total of 4.5, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -215. I'm sure people will also be wondering about the Over 5.5 assists as an alternate line. The same projection of 5.9 against the total of 5.5 would equal -112 for the Over.

De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 4.5 assists (-145 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Green light ahead 

Jalen Green has dropped six and eight dimes in his previous two games, and while I might typically say it won't continue because he is only averaging eight potential assists in those two games, this might be an instance where the film tells a much stronger story than a statistic.

Green's offensive game involves 3-point shooting or downhill drives with athletic finishes at the rim; mid-range jump shots, not so much. In their last outing against the Bulls, the Rockets were working Green in the pick-and-roll, and when he got in the lane, he was able to find multiple players in the dunker spot for easy assists.

Will Green continue to convert his potential assists at this extremely high rate? No, but we also don't need as many potential assists from Green as you might with another player considering the nature of the passes. Green is using his athleticism off the bounce to set up players like Cam Whitmore, Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr. for dunks at the rim off the pick-and-roll, and the Rockets' players are also doing an excellent job of cutting to a spot where Green can see them.

Green will also be playing against the Pistons, with whom he has a personal rivalry since they drafted Cade Cunningham over him in the 2021 NBA Draft. This matchup against the Pistons should also see the Rockets' secondary pieces create more offense, as the Rockets won't need to lean as heavily on Fred VanVleet.

Green is projected to have 3.8 assists against the Pistons on Friday, allowing us to price the over 3.5 assists at -106. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 16% thanks to the +125 price point that is available at bet365.

Jalen Green prop: Over 3.5 assists (+125 at bet365)