We've got a busy Saturday of basketball with 11 games on the NBA betting board. That means hundreds of NBA player props to consider, and I've narrowed it down to a select few.
Nothing says the modern NBA more than international players making a big impact, and today I'm backing Finland's Lauri Markkanen and Croatia's Bojan Bogdanovic while fading Swiss center Clint Capela.
Here are my best free NBA player prop picks for January 28.
NBA player props for January 28
Picks made on 1/28/2023 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Making his Mark
Jazz power forward Lauri Markkanen is enjoying a breakout season with 24.8 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. He's been even better lately averaging 29.3 ppg and 9.4 rpg over his last 16 games.
The O/U on Markkanen's points plus rebounds total for today is set at 33.5, a number he has eclipsed in 10 of those 16 contests.
Today, the Jazz host a banged-up Dallas team that will be missing Luka Doncic, Christian Wood, and Maxi Kleber.
The Mavericks are last in the NBA in rebound rate while ranking 25th in defensive rating (114.9 points per 100 possessions allowed). They've been even worse on defense lately and are second-last in the league with a defensive rating of 120.2 over the last 15 games.
Without Wood and Kleber, the job of guarding Markkanen will primarily fall to Dwight Powell, with David Bertans and Javale McGee possibly seeing some time against him as well.
Markkanen is a matchup nightmare for any of those guys and should have a big night against a Mavs team that has struggled on defense lately and has been awful on the glass all season.
Lauri Markkanen Prop: Over 33.5 points + rebounds (-106)
No bogies
Two young teams that believe playing defense is optional face off in Detroit tonight, with the Pistons hosting the Rockets.
Detroit forward Bojan Bogdanovic is coming off a poor shooting night against the Nets, where he went just 4-15 from the field and ended up with just 11 points. However, he had scored at least 22 points in each of his previous four games and is leading the Pistons with 21.3 ppg on 49/42/88 shooting splits.
The Rockets are 28th in the league in defensive rating and they struggle to defend outside shooters, allowing a league-high 14.4 three-pointers per game at a 36.7% clip.
Expect Bogdanovic to have a bounce-back game and bet on him to go Over his points total.
Bojan Bogdanovic Prop: Over 21.5 points (-120)
Played off
Hawks center Clint Capela is coming off a strong game against the Thunder, where he scored 18 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. He won't find it as easy to compete on the glass tonight against a Clippers team that is seventh in the league in rebound rate.
The Clippers also play at a much slower tempo than the Thunder (ranking 25th in pace) which means fewer shot attempts and rebounding opportunities for both sides.
Capela is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game but he has snagged more than 10 rebounds in just one of his last eight contests. With the Clippers' tendency to roll out small ball lineups, Capela might see fewer minutes than usual on the floor. Take the Under 10.5 on his rebounds total.
Clint Capela Prop: Under 10.5 rebounds (+100)
