Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Beasley's Minutes Fall — As Does His Production

Chalk it up to a “case of the Mondays”, but I’m coming off a rough night for my NBA player props.

Luckily, the league gives me eight Tuesday matchups to redeem myself. I comb through the NBA odds for those games and bring forth my best NBA prop picks for March 14.

NBA player props for March 14

• Beasley Under 16.5 PRA (-104)
• Banchero Over 21.5 points (-105)
• Morris Over 4.5 assists (-135)

Picks made on 3/14/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Not easy being Beasley 

Los Angeles Lakers starting guard Malik Beasley is mired in a nasty shooting slump while also seeing his minutes dwindle with the return of D’Angelo Russell to L.A.’s backcourt.

After logging more than 30 minutes per game when Russell was out with an ankle injury, Beasley’s minutes have tumbled to 22, 21, and 26 in the past three games. That lack of floor time has also kept the 6-foot-4 guard cold, boasting a chilly 7-for-28 mark from the field including 4-for-19 from beyond the arc.

While Lakers coach Darvin Ham had words of encouragement for Beasley, the team is getting much better production from backcourt reserves Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves – each of which outscored Beasley’s 10 points in the loss to New York on Sunday.

His scoring has sunk like a stone in recent games, playing below his point total in eight straight contests since erupting for 25 points vs. Golden State on Feb. 23. Books have drastically slimmed his scoring projections from as high as 19.5 at its peak to 11.5 for tonight’s game at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are a sound defensive team inside Smoothie King Center, ranked out No. 8 in home defensive rating, and play a much slower pace offensively which will limit the number of touches Los Angeles gets with the basketball. On top of that, Beasley does see his production dip on the road, averaging only 11.9 away from home – when he’s not seeing limited minutes and fighting through a shooting slump.

Beasley is a very streaky player, so he could threaten that shorter total with a couple of makes from downtown. I’ll opt to pad the Under with his points + rebounds + assists prop, which is as high as 16.5 (Under -104). With Russell back at point guard and Schroder coming off the bench, Beasley is not distributing the ball at all nor is he in prime rebounding position parked on the wing.

He’s also gone Under this combo prop in eight of his last 10 games and scored eight points with three rebounds and two assists in 23 minutes vs. NOLA at home on Feb. 15. 

Malik Beasley prop: Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104)

Points for Paolo

Orlando Magic standout rookie Paolo Banchero is trying everything he can to stop the team from sliding further outside of the play-in picture in the East after winning just twice in the past six games, including an overtime victory against rival Miami on the weekend.

Banchero managed to score just 17 points in that thriller, which is a bit of a downtick from his recent production. However, it did come against the Heat’s smothering defense (shot only 5-for-14) and now the youngster enjoys an extended break before taking on the worst defense in the NBA.

The San Antonio Spurs sit bottom of the barrel in most defensive metrics and could be thin on answers when it comes to slowing down Banchero tonight. The Spurs’ frontcourt could be missing athletic forwards Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan, who are listed as game-time decisions.

Banchero has been demolishing the “rookie wall” in the home stretch of the schedule. He’s scoring 21.5 points per game in March, with highs of 26, 26, and 31 points in those six games. His activity within the offense has seen a surge as well, taking two more shots per outing in March compared to the first five months of the season which hasn’t hurt his shooting percentage which is up over 42% in that stretch.

Orlando is a 5.5-point favorite on the road with a taller total of 234 points, which means plenty of scoring from the Magic. Banchero will anchor that attack with his late-season surge, especially if frontcourt mate and second-leading scorer Franz Wagner sits out (questionable) after leaving Saturday’s game with injury. 

Paolo Banchero prop: Over 21.5 points (-105)

Dishing in D.C.

Washington Wizards guard Monte Morris didn’t have the best day at work against Philadelphia on Sunday. He scored 11 points for the Wizards but handed out only one assist and coughed the ball over twice in 25 minutes of play. He was also torched on the defensive end.

Morris has a great chance to get right tonight with the Detroit Pistons – or what’s left of them – coming to town.

Detroit is playing its second game of back-to-back outings after winning with a skeleton crew at Indiana on Monday. The Pistons were down their five top active scorers, and those starters are either questionable or out again for this matchup in D.C.

Morris averages 5.2 assists per game on the season and has posted five or more dimes in seven of the 10 outings prior to Sunday’s solo assist (he did miss time in February with a sore back). His assist total for tonight sits below that average at 4.5 with the Over listed at -135.

Oddsmakers have Washington set as high as 12.5-point home chalk, which means plenty of points for the Wizards against this thin Detroit roster playing with heavy legs. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the league – even when it’s at full strength.

The Wiz rank out No. 12 in assist rate on the season with an assist-to-FG ratio of 64.5% over the past three games, with Morris collecting 14 total assists in that span. For what it's worth, he also handed out six helpers in his lone matchup with the Pistons way back in the fall.

Monte Morris prop: Over 4.5 assists (-135)

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