Best NBA Player Props Today: Green's Hot Shooting Continues

Prop bet #1: Goodness Green

How real is the Jalen Green Renaissance?

I’m not entirely sure honestly as March produces lots of weird results, but what’s clear is Green is outrageously hot from the outside.

In March, Green is taking just shy of 10 threes a game and making 4.5. He isn’t slowing down either, but rather putting his foot on the gas pedal and upping his volume on a nightly basis. Green is averaging 11.6 attempts from deep over his last six games and hitting them at a scorching 47.1% clip. 

While I’m not a subscriber to the Ewing Theory that posits Green is playing better because franchise center Alperen Sengun is out, I do think there may be something to the fact he's better off playing spread pick and roll with a spaced floor. Having a stretch five like Jabari Smith Jr. allows him to get to his spots much more easily.

Whatever the reason, there is something to this shooting streak by Green. His confidence is at an all-time high, and his form is quick and repeatable.

It would be tempting to point to the Houston Rockets schedule to argue Green is only doing this against weak defenses. While the schedule as a whole has been soft, Green has had his best night shooting the long ball against the Oklahoma City Thunder who have some of the better perimeter defenders in basketball.

Green has hit four or more threes in eight straight games now, including seven in three of those eight. He’s also generating about half his shots off the dribble which makes it much harder to limit his attempts.

While this bet is still available at plus money value, these Jalen Green odds are too good to pass on.

Jalen Green prop: Over 3.5 threes (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: To the Victor go the boards

For a while there, the odds were incredibly favorable on Victor Wembanyama's rebounding props. 

Now it’s more of a case-by-case basis, and while I don’t think there’s great value taking Wemby’s rebounding prop against the Golden State Warriors, his impact on the glass is still the basis for me liking these Draymond Green odds.

The Warriors are consistently better rebounders than their size would suggest, and a big part of that is because Green is so crafty at crashing the glass. But technique and desire can only take one so far. Wembanyama is a dominant defensive rebounder, with the potential to be one of the best ever given his length, fluidity, and nose for the ball. 

The San Antonio Spurs played the Warriors twice in March on the ninth and the 11th, and Green had five and six boards respectively — two of his three lowest totals in his last 10 games. Wemby only suited up for one of those mind you, but Green’s unique strengths on the glass are largely nullified by Victor's go-go gadget arms. 

Wemby has dominated traditional centers like Anthony Davis on the glass because he can grab rebounds over the top of 7-foot players even when boxed out.  A box out by Green by comparison may as well not exist to the Rookie of the Year favorite.

Green is averaging 7.9 boards over his last 10 games, and he’s only had nine or more three times in that time.

Draymond Green prop: Under 8.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Mired Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is back in action for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he's far from his usual self. Mitchell officially missed six games due to issues stemming from a nasal fracture but had only just been back for two games after missing another seven before that due to a bone bruise in his knee. 

The knee injury required a PRP injection, and per Brian Windhorst (who is as plugged into the Cleveland market as any reporter there is) the treatment wasn’t successful. Windhorst noted that while the nasal fracture was listed on his injury report, it is knee issues that continue to dog Mitchell.

Watching Donovan’s first game back against the Philadelphia 76ers, it’s clear the knee is still troubling him.

While he scored twice at the rim against the 76ers, they were both the result of fast breaks with no defenders back. His other attempts to get to the rim saw him force tough floaters against the likes of Kelly Oubre or get outright stripped of the ball by Tobias Harris. He finished with just 12 points and went 4-for-13 from the field.

The Mile High City is a terrible place for a player trying to find their rhythm and conditioning to try and get back on track. Not only do the Denver Nuggets play some outstanding defenders, the altitude and thin air test even the best conditioned athletes.

If Mitchell struggles to create separation as I suspect, it will be difficult for him to keep attacking the rim for too long before gassing out. While a month ago these Donovan Mitchell odds would have been an easy Over, until I see signs that “Spida” has recovered from his nagging bone bruise, I'm going to like the Under at this number.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Under 21.5 points (+100 at bet365)