While the Minnesota Timberwolves are scuffling along at .500 outright and a woeful 6-10 against the spread, there's been one bet consistently cashing for Minnesota in any free NBA picks. And not even the Houston Rockets’ quality 3-point defense should slow down Anthony Edwards from deep tonight.
This NBA Cup game has greater things at stake, but that specific prop will lead my Rockets vs. Timberwolves predictions before tip at 8:00 ET on Tuesday, November 26.
Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 threes (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
In 16 games this season, Anthony Edwards has hit at least four 3-pointers in 13 of them. In two of those exceptions, he hit three 3-pointers.
For a player taking 53.1% of his shots from beyond the arc and averaging 4.9 made 3-pointers per game, the NBA odds are being remarkably stubborn about not consistently moving this prop up to 4.5.
This season has been quite the change for Edwards, both in volume and success. His 43.8% from deep is a huge jump from last year’s 35.7% or the previous season’s 36.9%, but that's not the biggest change.
Last year, Edwards took 34.1% of his shots from long range; in 2022-23, that number was 37.5%. Now at 53.1%, Edwards’s shot distribution has changed, rightfully so, given the increase in success.
The change in shot distribution should have changed his prop, and literally speaking, it has. At the season’s start, the prop was 2.5 juiced to about -140 on the Over. After two games, it climbed to 3.5 with the Over drawing plus money. Three games later, Over 3.5 was now -110 or shorter.
However, that change has not been enough, not when Edwards has cashed the Over on his 3-pointer prop in 12 of 16 games this year. If you bet it in every game, you would be up 7.3 units.
The Houston Rockets have a strong perimeter defense. They rank No. 4 in 3-pointer frequency against at just 34.7 per game and No. 7 in percentage against at 34.3%, but Edwards’ frequency is simply too high to hesitate with this prop at 3.5.
Rockets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 threes
Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 assists
Timberwolves team total Under 111.5
Veteran point guard Mike Conley has missed the last two games due to a big toe injury. He's questionable tonight and his status likely will not be known until an hour before tip, but the Timberwolves’ messaging has definitely left some doubt that Conley will play tonight.
With Conley in the lineup, Edwards has averaged 3.8 assists in 13 games this season. Without him, that climbs to 4.3, still short of this prop, but clearly, there's more value in this prop with Conley sidelined than with him in the lineup.
Conley’s impact on the Timberwolves is underappreciated. With him, their offensive rating this year has been 117.5. Without him, that plummets to 107.9. While that latter number may have a sample size of just three games, the drop-off is drastic enough to add validity to expecting Minnesota to struggle offensively tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rockets vs Timberwolves odds
Rockets vs Timberwolves live odds
Rockets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Houston +3 | Minnesota -3
- Moneyline: Houston +135 | Minnesota -160
- Over/Under: Over 220.5 | Under 220.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Rockets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 3-point favorite on Monday evening, climbing to -3.5 by the end of the night and holding there.
- The total opened at 220.5 and climbed as high as 222.5 overnight but then quickly fell to 220 on Tuesday morning.
- The most important thing for both teams tonight as it pertains to the NBA Cup is to win this game, no blowout necessary. If the Timberwolves win tonight and Friday against the Clippers, they will just need the Blazers to lose one of their two remaining group-play games in order to advance. If the Rockets win tonight, they will be guaranteed advancement out of group play.
Rockets vs Timberwolves trend
The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, exceeding the bookmakers' expectations by an average of 11.6 points in those seven ATS wins. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Rockets vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, FDSNNO |
Rockets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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