The Inaugural Players Era Festival tips off on Thursday night in Paradise, Nevada with an eight-team tournament featuring some of the best teams in NCAA basketball. The first game in the Impact Division will be a clash between the No. 6 Houston Cougars and No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at 8 p.m. ET.
The Cougars are 4-point favorites but my Houston vs. Alabama predictions are backing the Tide to keep things close.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this showdown between national title contenders on November 26.
Houston vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Alabama +4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The analytics love the Houston Cougars who are rated as the No. 1 team in the country according to KenPom and Bart Torvik. That said, while they've been dominating weak competition they lost their only game against a quality opponent this year, falling 74-69 at home against Auburn.
The Alabama Crimson Tide also lost to the first-ranked opponent they faced when they played Purdue on the road but they beat Illinois 100-87 last week. They were able to win by a comfortable margin despite an ugly performance from All-American guard Mark Sears who scored zero points in 21 minutes. Sears averaged 21.5 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits last season so he should bounce back.
A silver lining from that off-night from Sears was that five-star freshman Labaron Philon racked up 16 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds, while sophomore guard Aden Holloway dropped 18 points off the bench. With those young guards showing improvement, the sky is the limit for the Tide who returned three starters from a squad that made it to the Final Four last season.
Houston thrives at pressuring ball-handlers, forcing turnovers and turning them into easy buckets on the fast break. However, Alabama does a great job of taking care of the ball (36th in turnover rate) and is 19th in the country in transition defense per ShotQualityBets.
The Cougars are perennially an elite defensive team under Kelvin Sampson but their offense has been surprisingly efficient this season. Houston is shooting an unsustainable 48.8% from 3-point range with leading scorer Emanuel Sharpe boasting a 73.3 3PT% despite shooting just 37.3% from the field last year.
There will be significant regression from Houston when it comes to shooting the ball and I'm expecting positive regression from Sears, which has me taking the points with Bama.
Houston vs Alabama same-game parlay
Alabama +4
Under 149.5
Labaron Philon Over 3.5 rebounds
The total opened at 152.5 and early money came in on the Under, dropping it to 149.5. That makes sense since the Cougars are second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country. In addition, the Tide have done a far better job of defending than last season but haven't been shooting as well from the arc.
Philon is earning more playing time and he pulled down seven rebounds in a season-high 33 minutes versus Illinois. He has logged 5+ boards in three of his last four games and even with fewer possessions in this contest, he should eclipse 3.5 rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Houston vs Alabama odds
Houston vs Alabama live odds
Houston vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Houston -3.5 | Alabama +3.5
- Moneyline: Houston -180 | Alabama +150
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Houston vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+4.75 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Alabama.
How to watch Houston vs Alabama
| Location: | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Houston vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
