With four straight wins, the Milwaukee Bucks might just be turning the corner, but their road struggles will be under the microscope tonight as they take on the Miami Heat in NBA Cup action.
These teams are linked by their pursuit of Damian Lillard two summers ago, and my Bucks vs. Heat predictions lock in on a big game for Dame at Kaseya Center.
For that prop and more, check out my NBA picks and betting angles for this November 26 battle, including why the Over is a strong play here.
Bucks vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points + assists (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Before the negotiations between the Trail Blazers and Miami Heat fell apart, there had been a certain inevitability about Damian Lillard ending up in South Beach.
And, while that’s all water under the bridge now, I expect Lillard to put on a show tonight, just as he did in Miami last season with 32 points and nine assists in his first visit as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks.
I like the Over on Dame’s points + assists combo prop, with an O/U line that he’s gone past in consecutive games. Lillard is coming off a 31-point, four-assist effort against the Hornets last time out, and now Milwaukee needs its star guard to elevate his production away from Fiserv Forum as it tries to build on a 2-0 start in the NBA Cup.
Dame’s scoring numbers on the road are lagging behind his home form, but this is a favorable matchup against a Heat backcourt missing Terry Rozier.
Whether it’s Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, or Alec Burks, Lillard should be able to walk into good looks, and he’ll need to be in attack mode, given that Giannis Antetokounmpo (probable) is dealing with a calf issue and will be shadowed by Bam Adebayo.
I’m counting on Dame’s steady playmaking to continue here, too. He’s averaging 7.4 assists per game this year but that’s on the upswing after double-digit dimes in three of his past four contests.
Fellow crafty point guard Kyrie Irving finished with 27 points and six assists against the Heat on Sunday, and this combo prop offers good value for Lillard to serve up a “what might have been” performance.
Bucks vs Heat same-game parlay
Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points + assists
Over 222.5
Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points
There’s a compelling case tonight for the Over, which is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings and has hit in four of Miami’s last five games, as well as Milwaukee’s past two outings.
The Bucks have gone past the 120-point mark in three straight contests and rank seventh in the NBA in field goal percentage (48%), but they’re allowing the third most 3-point makes per game this year. That spells trouble against a Heat team that’s knocking down 38% of its triples (seventh-best in the league).
I’m also taking the Over on the Jimmy Butler points prop to round out my SGP. Butler has been cooking since returning from an ankle injury, with a combined 63 points in his two outings last week, and there are holes to exploit in Milwaukee’s perimeter defense.
So much of the Heat’s scoring stems from the central trio of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro — and who could forget Jimmy’s supernova performances against the Bucks in the 2023 playoffs, where he sealed the series with 56 points and 42 points in the final two games?
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bucks vs Heat odds
Bucks vs Heat live odds
Bucks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +2.5 | Miami -2.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +115 | Miami -135
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Bucks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- With their 1-6 record on the road this year, including five straight losses on their travels, the Bucks enter as slight underdogs — and they’re just 6-10-1 ATS so far this season.
- The Heat have won four of the past six meetings between these teams but needed overtime to get past the Luka Doncic-less Mavericks at the weekend.
- The Bucks, still without Khris Middleton, have gone past tonight’s 222.5-point total in five of their last six games.
Bucks vs Heat trend
The Heat have cashed the first-half moneyline in 27 of their last 43 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
How to watch Bucks vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Bucks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
