Best NBA Player Props Today: Counting On Clint Capela

Prop bet #1: Clint cleans the glass

The Atlanta Hawks have shrugged off an 0-2 start, winning five of their last six games. A humming offense has been a big part of the story — Atlanta has scored 120 points or more in six of its eight contests — but I’m looking to the defensive end for my favorite Hawks prop tonight.  

Clint Capela continues to be the anchor of this Atlanta defense, repeatedly covering for Trae Young’s struggles guarding the point of attack, and he’s had a strong start this season despite splitting time with talented backup Onyeka Okongwu. There’s every reason to think Capela will be a key man in the paint again here against a physical Miami Heat team.

For starters, he’s averaging a double-double this year, including 10.5 rebounds a night, and I see him dominating on the boards again, especially with the Heat often putting a smaller lineup on the court around Bam Adebayo. As long as Capela isn’t dragged out to the 3-point arc too often, he’s the likeliest Hawk to vacuum up boards.

Coming into the season, it felt like only a matter of time before Okongwu’s impact cut into Capela’s production. But that’s not been the case so far. His workload has dipped slightly to 25 minutes a game, but he’s making those minutes count.

Capela’s had 11 or more rebounds in three of his last four games, and double-digit boards twice against a similar Miami roster last season. I’m grabbing the Over here.

Clint Capela prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Dazzling Dennis

Toronto Raptors guard Dennis Schroder arrived in The Six with the tough task of replacing Fred VanVleet in the backcourt, but he’s met that challenge head-on over the first few weeks of the season. With Schroder at the controls, the Raptors have won three of their last four games. 

I see the German staying in attack mode tonight, even in a matchup against the Boston Celtics and their top-tier perimeter defense. Of course, it helps that the Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back set.

The Schroder points prop is set at an attractive number. He’s averaged just under 20 points over the past four games with 13 or more shots in three of those contests, and he’s hitting a healthy 40% from deep this year. The 13.5 line feels too low as a result.

Schroder will see plenty of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday at TD Garden tonight, but he’s got a quickness edge there and I like his chances of getting good looks if Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford switch onto him.

The Raptors should be the fresher team and Schroder’s ability to get out in transition will be key alongside Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam. Toronto’s 26.4 transition points per game trail only Atlanta (28.8) this season.

While Malachi Flynn is settling in as the Raptors’ regular backup point guard, Schroder can expect at least 30 minutes again here — and I like his chances of cashing in the Over.

Dennis Schroder prop: Over 13.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Franz the facilitator

Despite a dip in shooting percentage, Franz Wagner is otherwise off to a solid start to his third year in the league. He’s averaging a tick under 18 points a game, with a significant jump in rebounds so far.

But it’s his playmaking that I’m focused on as the Orlando Magic try to climb above .500 tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Wagner is a key cog for the Magic as they move forward with a highly-rated young core, and the Magic are still scratching the surface of his ability as a 6-foot-10 creator next to Paolo Banchero.

But Wagner has consistently chipped in with assists again so far this year, after averaging 3.5 a game in the 2022/23 season. He’s had at least three dimes in six of his last seven contests while looking like a more dangerous facilitator than teammates Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs at times.

Wagner’s drive-and-kick skill set will be particularly valuable for Orlando tonight against a long-armed Bucks team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez patrolling the paint. Points at the rim may be at a premium, but the German is savvy at finding open shooters once he’s collapsed the defense.

It’s been a busy week for the Magic, including a 120-119 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in Mexico City on Thursday, where Wagner finished with three assists. I see him at least repeating that tally here against Milwaukee.

Franz Wagner prop: Over 2.5 assists (-115 at FanDuel)